TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13129547
Played Sep 15Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.86
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151210116––––
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
1151210116––––
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 17–15 Lukasz Oracz Lukasz Oracz has won 15 of their 32 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:51What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-15 in 32
Skotniczny
Correct
gap of 2 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1439 vs Oracz 1358
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 20% vs Oracz 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 30% vs Oracz 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny -1 · Oracz -4
Oracz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.86 / Oracz 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skotniczny)+4.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13129547
Skotniczny1.86
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 62 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back28% 19 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Oracz1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 374 of 585
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it82% 292 of 355
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotniczny5wins
AwayOracz5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotnicznyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayOracz62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny2Oracz8n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S2Skotniczny6Oracz4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S3Skotniczny6Oracz4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S4Skotniczny4Oracz2n = 6Skotniczny took 4 of 6
S5Skotniczny3Oracz3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicznyOraczS − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match39.239.3−0.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime594 / 1027 vs 828 / 149857.8%55.3%594 / 1027 vs 828 / 1498Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.86/Oracz 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 06:20R. Skotniczny341112113L. Oracz2151060
WJun 3 · 11:30R. Skotniczny511011811113L. Oracz4112811552
LJun 3 · 07:10R. Skotniczny45381111122L. Oracz49111149143
LMay 26 · 13:55R. Skotniczny224990L. Oracz331111113
LMay 26 · 07:55R. Skotniczny47511118122L. Oracz52117911143
WMay 19 · 13:55R. Skotniczny47511911113L. Oracz4911911992
WMay 19 · 07:55R. Skotniczny48711136113L. Oracz43115111152
WApr 20 · 15:55R. Skotniczny331111113L. Oracz259970
LApr 20 · 09:55R. Skotniczny228860L. Oracz331111113
LApr 17 · 13:30R. Skotniczny4398111142L. Oracz47111177113
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 15 · 07:30R. Skotniczny2.2011611113M. Durda1.57711391LSep 12 · 08:20R. Skotniczny1.839990K. Adamus1.811111113WSep 12 · 06:45O. Sokolowski3.105870R. Skotniczny1.331111113LSep 12 · 06:00W. Pytlas2.0591111113R. Skotniczny1.64115551LSep 12 · 05:10R. Skotniczny1.809570O. Sokolowski1.851111113LSep 12 · 04:00R. Skotniczny1.38413441P. Mecik2.65111111113WSep 11 · 17:05R. Skotniczny1.601111113P. Kurek2.109970LSep 11 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.85711110S. Szostok1.801113133WSep 11 · 14:20R. Skotniczny1.4211511113P. Mecik2.60711941LSep 11 · 12:45R. Skotniczny1.8011311612J. Pruszkowski1.85811911113
L. Oracz10
LSep 15 · 07:10L. Oracz1.80911991K. Jablonski1.8511611113LSep 14 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek2.631114113L. Oracz1.4471280LSep 14 · 13:30L. Oracz2.009880K. Slawinski1.731111113LSep 14 · 12:15P. Kurek2.38811114113L. Oracz1.5311871162LSep 14 · 11:00P. Przewlocki1.831111710113L. Oracz1.8358111262WSep 14 · 09:25M. Sikon2.75781131L. Oracz1.4011117113LSep 14 · 08:35P. Kurek2.381411123L. Oracz1.53124100LSep 14 · 07:20L. Oracz2.10108100K. Slawinski1.671211123WSep 14 · 06:05J. Kaczmarek3.0059110L. Oracz1.361111133WSep 14 · 04:55P. Przewlocki2.00871181L. Oracz1.7311118113
Upcoming Matches
R. Skotniczny
Sep 15 · 08:20R. Skotniczny1.54R. Gajda2.22—Sep 15 · 09:05R. Skotniczny1.50M. Adamus2.40—Sep 15 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.48K. Jablonski2.34—Sep 15 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.58R. Gajda2.15—Sep 15 · 13:30R. Skotniczny2.65M. Durda1.39—Sep 15 · 14:20R. Skotniczny1.83L. Oracz1.86—Sep 15 · 15:05R. Skotniczny1.47M. Adamus2.38—Sep 15 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.48K. Jablonski2.34—
L. Oracz
Sep 15 · 08:45L. Oracz2.30M. Durda1.55—Sep 15 · 09:30L. Oracz1.54R. Gajda2.23—Sep 15 · 10:20L. Oracz1.50M. Adamus2.40—Sep 15 · 11:30L. Oracz1.48K. Jablonski2.35—Sep 15 · 12:45L. Oracz1.50M. Adamus2.30—Sep 15 · 14:20L. Oracz1.86R. Skotniczny1.83—Sep 15 · 15:30L. Oracz1.57R. Gajda2.15—Sep 15 · 17:05L. Oracz2.60M. Durda1.39—
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