TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13131741
Played Sep 15Finished
Rafal Gajda
Home
2.22
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111210117811116
Rafal Skotniczny
Away
1.54
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:26 and never touched — 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
9111210117811116
H2H Rafal Gajda 16–23 Rafal Skotniczny Rafal Gajda has won 16 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:26What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (59%)
Skotniczny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-23 in 39
Skotniczny
Wrong
gap of 7 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gajda 1344 vs Skotniczny 1439
Skotniczny
Wrong
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gajda 20% vs Skotniczny 60%
Skotniczny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gajda 40% vs Skotniczny 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gajda +1 · Skotniczny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gajda form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGajda 2.22 / Skotniczny 1.54
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Skotniczny)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13131741
Gajda2.22
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 124 of 279
Down 0–1, comes back27% 43 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 79
Skotniczny1.54
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 207 of 325
Up 2–0, closes it96% 108 of 113
Up 1–0, closes it82% 156 of 190
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGajda4wins
AwaySkotniczny6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGajda75%3 of 4
AwaySkotniczny83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gajda4Skotniczny6n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S2Gajda5Skotniczny5n = 10split evenly
S3Gajda6Skotniczny4n = 10Gajda took 6 of 10
S4Gajda2Skotniczny4n = 6Skotniczny took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGajdaSkotnicznyG − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.134.4+0.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGajdaSkotnicznyBasisWin rate · lifetime414 / 802 vs 594 / 102751.6%57.8%414 / 802 vs 594 / 1027Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznyGajda 2.22/Skotniczny 1.54
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.2%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gajda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 17:05R. Gajda239770R. Skotniczny331111113
LAug 26 · 08:45R. Gajda3811111061R. Skotniczny4313712113
LJul 1 · 15:05R. Gajda32611781R. Skotniczny3611311113
WJul 1 · 09:05R. Gajda331111113R. Skotniczny219840
LJun 24 · 13:30R. Gajda2611870R. Skotniczny351311113
LJun 24 · 07:30R. Gajda46125111082R. Skotniczny491011512113
LJun 3 · 14:20R. Gajda35891171R. Skotniczny4011117113
WJun 3 · 06:20R. Gajda4211911113R. Skotniczny22111371
WJun 2 · 14:20R. Gajda351113113R. Skotniczny2991190
WJun 2 · 06:20R. Gajda4181111113R. Skotniczny36119791
R. Gajda10
LSep 15 · 09:30R. Gajda2.2310980L. Oracz1.541211113WSep 15 · 06:45R. Gajda1.76711711123M. Adamus1.90119119102LSep 15 · 05:30R. Gajda1.7494110K. Jablonski1.951111133LSep 9 · 13:55P. Przewlocki1.731114113R. Gajda2.0071280LSep 9 · 13:05O. Vincenec2.10711911133R. Gajda1.67118119112LSep 9 · 12:15R. Gajda1.80111451192K. Schaniel1.917121113113WSep 9 · 10:35R. Gajda2.10117811113P. Gumulinski1.6781111792WSep 9 · 09:50P. Kurek2.10117861R. Gajda1.6761111113WSep 9 · 08:35R. Gajda1.83713611113K. Schaniel1.83111111432LSep 9 · 06:55R. Gajda1.73711211102O. Vincenec2.00116118123
R. Skotniczny10
LSep 15 · 09:05M. Adamus2.301112123R. Skotniczny1.55910100WSep 15 · 07:30R. Skotniczny2.2011611113M. Durda1.57711391WSep 15 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.861112113L. Oracz1.8051060LSep 12 · 08:20R. Skotniczny1.839990K. Adamus1.811111113WSep 12 · 06:45O. Sokolowski3.105870R. Skotniczny1.331111113LSep 12 · 06:00W. Pytlas2.0591111113R. Skotniczny1.64115551LSep 12 · 05:10R. Skotniczny1.809570O. Sokolowski1.851111113LSep 12 · 04:00R. Skotniczny1.38413441P. Mecik2.65111111113WSep 11 · 17:05R. Skotniczny1.601111113P. Kurek2.109970LSep 11 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.85711110S. Szostok1.801113133
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