TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13132835
Played Sep 15Finished
Mariusz Adamus
Home
2.65
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118119911116––
Michal Durda
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:25 and never touched — 60.7% is still 60.7%
Graded at full timeMariusz Adamus to win
60.7%
60.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
118119911116––
H2H Mariusz Adamus 4–1 Michal Durda Michal Durda has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:25What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (65%)
Durda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Adamus
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1475 vs Durda 1582
Durda
Wrong
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 80% vs Durda 40%
Adamus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 70% vs Durda 40%
Adamus
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +3 · Durda +2
Adamus
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Durda) · live re-read · sealed at 39% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Durda form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 2.65 / Durda 1.40
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Durda)+0.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13132835
Adamus2.65
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 170 of 410
Down 0–1, comes back21% 43 of 209
Down 0–2, comes back8% 9 of 113
Durda1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite77% won 183 of 237
Up 2–0, closes it98% 91 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it92% 129 of 141
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeAdamus4wins
AwayDurda1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderAdamus leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus100%4 of 4
AwayDurdan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus4Durda1n = 5Adamus took 4 of 5
S2Adamus4Durda1n = 5Adamus took 4 of 5
S3Adamus3Durda2n = 5Adamus took 3 of 5
S4Adamus2Durda1n = 3Adamus took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricAdamusDurdaA − DBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match40.836.4+4.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusDurdaBasisWin rate · lifetime800 / 1635 vs 196 / 25448.9%77.2%800 / 1635 vs 196 / 254Avg sets wonper match2.02.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DurdaAdamus 2.65/Durda 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.6%
Durda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 15 · 05:55M. Adamus3712113113M. Durda361071181
WAug 7 · 21:45M. Adamus491111511113M. Durda5089111392
WAug 7 · 17:45M. Adamus371212133M. Durda311010110
WJul 6 · 24:25M. Adamus341111123M. Durda2266100
LJul 5 · 20:45M. Adamus47611111182M. Durda43111353113
M. Adamus10
LSep 15 · 13:55M. Adamus1.8301251182K. Jablonski1.831110118113LSep 15 · 12:45L. Oracz1.551111510113M. Adamus2.3079111252WSep 15 · 10:20M. Adamus2.2011118113L. Oracz1.60971191WSep 15 · 09:05M. Adamus2.301112123R. Skotniczny1.55910100WSep 15 · 07:55M. Adamus1.8381112153K. Jablonski1.8311810131LSep 15 · 06:45R. Gajda1.76711711123M. Adamus1.90119119102WSep 15 · 05:55M. Adamus2.6012113113M. Durda1.421071181LSep 14 · 04:20M. Adamus2.30711771O. Jadach1.5511711113WSep 14 · 03:05M. Adamus1.80811811113G. Marud1.8511311692WSep 14 · 01:55M. Adamus1.8181111113O. Vincenec1.82119661
M. Durda10
LSep 15 · 14:45R. Gajda3.3011148113M. Durda1.268121121LSep 15 · 13:30R. Skotniczny2.2581412113M. Durda1.5711121091WSep 15 · 11:05R. Gajda3.309790M. Durda1.261111113WSep 15 · 09:55M. Durda1.231111113K. Jablonski3.505550WSep 15 · 08:45L. Oracz2.3038100M. Durda1.551111123LSep 15 · 07:30R. Skotniczny2.2011611113M. Durda1.57711391LSep 15 · 05:55M. Adamus2.6012113113M. Durda1.421071181LSep 8 · 14:20W. Urban3.4011811133M. Durda1.309117111LSep 8 · 13:30P. Gumulinski2.2511119113M. Durda1.57461141LSep 8 · 11:25R. Idaczyk5.0071111133M. Durda1.141178111
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