TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13133357
Played Sep 15Finished
Rafal Gajda
Home
3.30
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181412811112––
Michal Durda
Away
1.26
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:28 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Durda to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
1181412811112––
H2H Rafal Gajda 1–10 Michal Durda Rafal Gajda has won 1 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Durda beat Gajda 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:28What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.26 (72%)
Durda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-10 in 11
Durda
Wrong
gap of 9 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gajda 1325 vs Durda 1552
Durda
Wrong
both rated, 227 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gajda 20% vs Durda 60%
Durda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gajda 20% vs Durda 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gajda -4 · Durda -2
Gajda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Durda) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Durda form (60%) is below what odds imply (79%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGajda 3.30 / Durda 1.26
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Durda)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13133357
Gajda3.30
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 124 of 279
Down 0–1, comes back27% 43 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 79
Durda1.26
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite77% won 183 of 237
Up 2–0, closes it98% 91 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it92% 129 of 141
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGajda1wins
AwayDurda9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDurda leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGajdan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayDurda88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gajda1Durda9n = 10Durda took 9 of 10
S2Gajda5Durda5n = 10split evenly
S3Gajda4Durda6n = 10Durda took 6 of 10
S4Gajda1Durda6n = 7Durda took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricGajdaDurdaG − DBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match33.640.4−6.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGajdaDurdaBasisWin rate · lifetime415 / 807 vs 197 / 25751.4%76.7%415 / 807 vs 197 / 257Avg sets wonper match2.12.5per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DurdaGajda 3.30/Durda 1.26
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
78.7%
Durda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gajda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 11:05R. Gajda259790M. Durda331111113
WAug 18 · 12:40R. Gajda44111111113M. Durda37138791
LAug 18 · 06:30R. Gajda33811681M. Durda3611311113
LAug 4 · 09:50R. Gajda48101111792M. Durda48125911113
LAug 4 · 05:40R. Gajda4211512772M. Durda496111011113
LJul 30 · 10:35R. Gajda35871281M. Durda43111110113
LJul 30 · 03:00R. Gajda2461350M. Durda371115113
LJul 23 · 10:35R. Gajda37615881M. Durda46111311113
LJul 23 · 03:00R. Gajda29611391M. Durda4211911113
LJul 16 · 13:05R. Gajda198740M. Durda331111113
R. Gajda10
LSep 15 · 15:30L. Oracz1.751114183R. Gajda1.90712160LSep 15 · 13:10R. Gajda1.7561070K. Jablonski1.951112113LSep 15 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.751111133R. Gajda1.9888110LSep 15 · 11:05R. Gajda3.309790M. Durda1.261111113LSep 15 · 09:30R. Gajda2.2310980L. Oracz1.541211113WSep 15 · 08:20R. Gajda2.22912118113R. Skotniczny1.54111071162WSep 15 · 06:45R. Gajda1.76711711123M. Adamus1.90119119102LSep 15 · 05:30R. Gajda1.7494110K. Jablonski1.951111133LSep 9 · 13:55P. Przewlocki1.731114113R. Gajda2.0071280LSep 9 · 13:05O. Vincenec2.10711911133R. Gajda1.67118119112
M. Durda10
LSep 15 · 13:30R. Skotniczny2.2581412113M. Durda1.5711121091LSep 15 · 11:55M. Adamus2.6511119113M. Durda1.40891161WSep 15 · 11:05R. Gajda3.309790M. Durda1.261111113WSep 15 · 09:55M. Durda1.231111113K. Jablonski3.505550WSep 15 · 08:45L. Oracz2.3038100M. Durda1.551111123LSep 15 · 07:30R. Skotniczny2.2011611113M. Durda1.57711391LSep 15 · 05:55M. Adamus2.6012113113M. Durda1.421071181LSep 8 · 14:20W. Urban3.4011811133M. Durda1.309117111LSep 8 · 13:30P. Gumulinski2.2511119113M. Durda1.57461141LSep 8 · 11:25R. Idaczyk5.0071111133M. Durda1.141178111
Upcoming Matches
R. Gajda
Sep 15 · 16:20R. Gajda1.70M. Adamus1.96—Sep 16 · 03:25R. Gajda1.91W. Urban1.80—Sep 16 · 04:10R. Gajda1.25I. Szymanski3.75—Sep 16 · 05:15R. Gajda2.20P. Gumulinski1.61—Sep 16 · 06:30R. Gajda1.83K. Adamus1.83—Sep 16 · 07:45R. Gajda1.67P. Przewlocki2.10—Sep 16 · 10:10R. Gajda1.67P. Przewlocki2.10—Sep 16 · 11:25R. Gajda2.20P. Gumulinski1.61—Sep 16 · 12:40R. Gajda1.83K. Adamus1.83—Sep 16 · 13:55R. Gajda1.25I. Szymanski3.75—
M. Durda
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