TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13132833
Played Sep 15Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181181311––––
Rafal Gajda
Away
1.98
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Gajda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
62 points played in total.
Set by set
1181181311––––
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 23–17 Rafal Gajda Rafal Gajda has won 17 of their 40 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Gajda beat Skotniczny 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:25What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-17 in 40
Skotniczny
Correct
gap of 6 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1386 vs Gajda 1350
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 40% vs Gajda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 30% vs Gajda 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny -3 · Gajda -2
Skotniczny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gajda form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.75 / Gajda 1.98
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skotniczny)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13132833
Skotniczny1.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 207 of 325
Up 2–0, closes it96% 108 of 113
Up 1–0, closes it82% 156 of 190
Gajda1.98
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 124 of 279
Down 0–1, comes back27% 43 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotniczny6wins
AwayGajda4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotniczny83.3%5 of 6
AwayGajda75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny6Gajda4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S2Skotniczny5Gajda5n = 10split evenly
S3Skotniczny4Gajda6n = 10Gajda took 6 of 10
S4Skotniczny5Gajda1n = 6Skotniczny took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicznyGajdaS − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.336.1−0.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyGajdaBasisWin rate · lifetime594 / 1030 vs 415 / 80557.7%51.6%594 / 1030 vs 415 / 805Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.75/Gajda 1.98
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 08:20R. Skotniczny45111071162R. Gajda51912118113
WAug 26 · 17:05R. Skotniczny331111113R. Gajda239770
WAug 26 · 08:45R. Skotniczny4313712113R. Gajda3811111061
WJul 1 · 15:05R. Skotniczny3611311113R. Gajda32611781
LJul 1 · 09:05R. Skotniczny219840R. Gajda331111113
WJun 24 · 13:30R. Skotniczny351311113R. Gajda2611870
WJun 24 · 07:30R. Skotniczny491011512113R. Gajda46125111082
WJun 3 · 14:20R. Skotniczny4011117113R. Gajda35891171
LJun 3 · 06:20R. Skotniczny22111371R. Gajda4211911113
LJun 2 · 14:20R. Skotniczny2991190R. Gajda351113113
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 15 · 14:20L. Oracz1.8612780R. Skotniczny1.831411113WSep 15 · 13:30R. Skotniczny2.2581412113M. Durda1.5711121091LSep 15 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.489101111112K. Jablonski2.34111268133LSep 15 · 09:05M. Adamus2.301112123R. Skotniczny1.55910100LSep 15 · 08:20R. Gajda2.22912118113R. Skotniczny1.54111071162WSep 15 · 07:30R. Skotniczny2.2011611113M. Durda1.57711391WSep 15 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.861112113L. Oracz1.8051060LSep 12 · 08:20R. Skotniczny1.839990K. Adamus1.811111113WSep 12 · 06:45O. Sokolowski3.105870R. Skotniczny1.331111113LSep 12 · 06:00W. Pytlas2.0591111113R. Skotniczny1.64115551
R. Gajda10
WSep 15 · 14:45R. Gajda3.3011148113M. Durda1.268121121LSep 15 · 13:10R. Gajda1.7561070K. Jablonski1.951112113LSep 15 · 11:05R. Gajda3.309790M. Durda1.261111113LSep 15 · 09:30R. Gajda2.2310980L. Oracz1.541211113WSep 15 · 08:20R. Gajda2.22912118113R. Skotniczny1.54111071162WSep 15 · 06:45R. Gajda1.76711711123M. Adamus1.90119119102LSep 15 · 05:30R. Gajda1.7494110K. Jablonski1.951111133LSep 9 · 13:55P. Przewlocki1.731114113R. Gajda2.0071280LSep 9 · 13:05O. Vincenec2.10711911133R. Gajda1.67118119112LSep 9 · 12:15R. Gajda1.80111451192K. Schaniel1.917121113113
Upcoming Matches
R. Skotniczny
R. Gajda
Sep 15 · 15:30R. Gajda2.15L. Oracz1.57—Sep 15 · 16:20R. Gajda1.70M. Adamus1.96—Sep 16 · 03:25R. Gajda1.91W. Urban1.80—Sep 16 · 04:10R. Gajda1.25I. Szymanski3.75—Sep 16 · 05:15R. Gajda2.10P. Gumulinski1.67—Sep 16 · 06:30R. Gajda1.83K. Adamus1.83—Sep 16 · 07:45R. Gajda1.67P. Przewlocki2.10—Sep 16 · 10:10R. Gajda1.67P. Przewlocki2.10—Sep 16 · 11:25R. Gajda2.20P. Gumulinski1.61—Sep 16 · 12:40R. Gajda1.83K. Adamus1.83—
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