TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13133359
Played Sep 15Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.86
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214711811––––
Rafal Skotniczny
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
63 points played in total.
Set by set
1214711811––––
H2H Lukasz Oracz 15–17 Rafal Skotniczny Lukasz Oracz has won 15 of their 32 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Skotniczny beat Oracz 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:29What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-17 in 32
Skotniczny
Correct
gap of 2 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1362 vs Skotniczny 1417
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 40% vs Skotniczny 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 20% vs Skotniczny 50%
Skotniczny
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +1 · Skotniczny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skotniczny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotniczny form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.86 / Skotniczny 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skotniczny)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13133359
Oracz1.86
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 120 of 282
Down 0–1, comes back22% 34 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 86
Skotniczny1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 207 of 325
Up 2–0, closes it96% 108 of 113
Up 1–0, closes it82% 156 of 190
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz5wins
AwaySkotniczny5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz62.5%5 of 8
AwaySkotnicznyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz8Skotniczny2n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S2Oracz4Skotniczny6n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S3Oracz4Skotniczny6n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S4Oracz2Skotniczny4n = 6Skotniczny took 4 of 6
S5Oracz3Skotniczny3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczSkotnicznyO − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.339.2+0.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczSkotnicznyBasisWin rate · lifetime830 / 1503 vs 596 / 103255.2%57.8%830 / 1503 vs 596 / 1032Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznyOracz 1.86/Skotniczny 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 06:20L. Oracz2151060R. Skotniczny341112113
LJun 3 · 11:30L. Oracz4112811552R. Skotniczny511011811113
WJun 3 · 07:10L. Oracz49111149143R. Skotniczny45381111122
WMay 26 · 13:55L. Oracz331111113R. Skotniczny224990
WMay 26 · 07:55L. Oracz52117911143R. Skotniczny47511118122
LMay 19 · 13:55L. Oracz4911911992R. Skotniczny47511911113
LMay 19 · 07:55L. Oracz43115111152R. Skotniczny48711136113
LApr 20 · 15:55L. Oracz259970R. Skotniczny331111113
WApr 20 · 09:55L. Oracz331111113R. Skotniczny228860
WApr 17 · 13:30L. Oracz47111177113R. Skotniczny4398111142
L. Oracz10
WSep 15 · 15:30L. Oracz1.751114183R. Gajda1.90712160WSep 15 · 12:45L. Oracz1.551111510113M. Adamus2.3079111252LSep 15 · 11:30L. Oracz1.85118101272K. Jablonski1.809111210113LSep 15 · 10:20M. Adamus2.2011118113L. Oracz1.60971191WSep 15 · 09:30R. Gajda2.2310980L. Oracz1.541211113LSep 15 · 08:45L. Oracz2.3038100M. Durda1.551111123LSep 15 · 07:10L. Oracz1.80911991K. Jablonski1.8511611113LSep 15 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.861112113L. Oracz1.8051060LSep 14 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek2.631114113L. Oracz1.4471280LSep 14 · 13:30L. Oracz2.009880K. Slawinski1.731111113
R. Skotniczny10
LSep 15 · 15:05M. Adamus2.374121111113R. Skotniczny1.51111013332WSep 15 · 13:30R. Skotniczny2.2581412113M. Durda1.5711121091WSep 15 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.751111133R. Gajda1.9888110LSep 15 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.489101111112K. Jablonski2.34111268133LSep 15 · 09:05M. Adamus2.301112123R. Skotniczny1.55910100LSep 15 · 08:20R. Gajda2.22912118113R. Skotniczny1.54111071162WSep 15 · 07:30R. Skotniczny2.2011611113M. Durda1.57711391WSep 15 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.861112113L. Oracz1.8051060LSep 12 · 08:20R. Skotniczny1.839990K. Adamus1.811111113WSep 12 · 06:45O. Sokolowski3.105870R. Skotniczny1.331111113
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