TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13133354
Played Sep 15Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11714121816––––
Rafal Gajda
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Gajda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
11714121816––––
H2H Lukasz Oracz 24–15 Rafal Gajda Rafal Gajda has won 15 of their 39 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Oracz beat Gajda 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:28What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (52%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-15 in 39
Oracz
Correct
gap of 9 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1350 vs Gajda 1343
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 40% vs Gajda 20%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 20% vs Gajda 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -1 · Gajda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gajda form (20%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.75 / Gajda 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Oracz)+1.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13133354
Oracz1.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 374 of 585
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it82% 292 of 355
Gajda1.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 124 of 279
Down 0–1, comes back27% 43 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz6wins
AwayGajda4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz71.4%5 of 7
AwayGajda66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz7Gajda3n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S2Oracz4Gajda6n = 10Gajda took 6 of 10
S3Oracz6Gajda4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S4Oracz4Gajda2n = 6Oracz took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczGajdaO − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.534.7+0.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczGajdaBasisWin rate · lifetime830 / 1504 vs 416 / 80855.2%51.5%830 / 1504 vs 416 / 808Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.75/Gajda 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 09:30L. Oracz341211113R. Gajda2710980
WAug 27 · 10:35L. Oracz49911511133R. Gajda48116119112
WAug 27 · 03:00L. Oracz331111113R. Gajda195590
LAug 20 · 12:15L. Oracz44115711102R. Gajda46711115123
LAug 20 · 08:35L. Oracz195950R. Gajda331111113
WAug 6 · 12:15L. Oracz341111123R. Gajda2587100
LAug 6 · 08:35L. Oracz29115941R. Gajda4291111113
WJul 2 · 11:25L. Oracz4011611123R. Gajda368117101
LJul 2 · 05:15L. Oracz33761191R. Gajda3811115113
WJun 16 · 13:55L. Oracz4011611123R. Gajda336116101
L. Oracz10
LSep 15 · 14:20L. Oracz1.8612780R. Skotniczny1.831411113WSep 15 · 12:45L. Oracz1.551111510113M. Adamus2.3079111252LSep 15 · 11:30L. Oracz1.85118101272K. Jablonski1.809111210113LSep 15 · 10:20M. Adamus2.2011118113L. Oracz1.60971191WSep 15 · 09:30R. Gajda2.2310980L. Oracz1.541211113LSep 15 · 08:45L. Oracz2.3038100M. Durda1.551111123LSep 15 · 07:10L. Oracz1.80911991K. Jablonski1.8511611113LSep 15 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.861112113L. Oracz1.8051060LSep 14 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek2.631114113L. Oracz1.4471280LSep 14 · 13:30L. Oracz2.009880K. Slawinski1.731111113
R. Gajda10
WSep 15 · 14:45R. Gajda3.3011148113M. Durda1.268121121LSep 15 · 13:10R. Gajda1.7561070K. Jablonski1.951112113LSep 15 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.751111133R. Gajda1.9888110LSep 15 · 11:05R. Gajda3.309790M. Durda1.261111113LSep 15 · 09:30R. Gajda2.2310980L. Oracz1.541211113WSep 15 · 08:20R. Gajda2.22912118113R. Skotniczny1.54111071162WSep 15 · 06:45R. Gajda1.76711711123M. Adamus1.90119119102LSep 15 · 05:30R. Gajda1.7494110K. Jablonski1.951111133LSep 9 · 13:55P. Przewlocki1.731114113R. Gajda2.0071280LSep 9 · 13:05O. Vincenec2.10711911133R. Gajda1.67118119112
Upcoming Matches
L. Oracz
R. Gajda
Sep 15 · 16:20R. Gajda1.70M. Adamus1.96—Sep 16 · 03:25R. Gajda1.91W. Urban1.80—Sep 16 · 04:10R. Gajda1.25I. Szymanski3.75—Sep 16 · 05:15R. Gajda2.20P. Gumulinski1.61—Sep 16 · 06:30R. Gajda1.83K. Adamus1.83—Sep 16 · 07:45R. Gajda1.67P. Przewlocki2.10—Sep 16 · 10:10R. Gajda1.67P. Przewlocki2.10—Sep 16 · 11:25R. Gajda2.20P. Gumulinski1.61—Sep 16 · 12:40R. Gajda1.83K. Adamus1.83—Sep 16 · 13:55R. Gajda1.25I. Szymanski3.75—
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