TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13133349
Played Sep 15Finished
Mariusz Adamus
Home
1.96
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
91111311131151412
Rafal Gajda
Away
1.70
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:27 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeMariusz Adamus to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
100 points played in total.
Set by set
91111311131151412
H2H Mariusz Adamus 7–8 Rafal Gajda Mariusz Adamus has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Gajda beat Adamus 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:27What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Gajda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1472 vs Gajda 1330
Adamus
Correct
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 60% vs Gajda 20%
Adamus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 60% vs Gajda 30%
Adamus
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +1 · Gajda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gajda form (20%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.96 / Gajda 1.70
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Adamus)+7.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13133349
Adamus1.96
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 170 of 410
Down 0–1, comes back21% 43 of 209
Down 0–2, comes back8% 9 of 113
Gajda1.70
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite58% won 149 of 256
Up 2–0, closes it92% 68 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it75% 104 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus4wins
AwayGajda6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGajda leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus50%3 of 6
AwayGajda75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus6Gajda4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S2Adamus5Gajda5n = 10split evenly
S3Adamus7Gajda3n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S4Adamus3Gajda4n = 7Gajda took 4 of 7
S5Adamus0Gajda3n = 3Gajda took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusGajdaA − GBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.437.1+3.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusGajdaBasisWin rate · lifetime799 / 1636 vs 416 / 80948.8%51.4%799 / 1636 vs 416 / 809Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.96/Gajda 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 06:45M. Adamus50119119102R. Gajda48711711123
LSep 2 · 13:10M. Adamus38119991R. Gajda3851111113
LSep 2 · 05:30M. Adamus4711791192R. Gajda49911117113
WAug 6 · 13:05M. Adamus391117113R. Gajda2551550
LAug 6 · 06:55M. Adamus47511131172R. Gajda51119155113
LJul 7 · 16:20M. Adamus398811121R. Gajda4511119143
LJul 7 · 06:45M. Adamus355811111R. Gajda4411119133
WJun 10 · 15:05M. Adamus331111113R. Gajda166460
WJun 10 · 09:05M. Adamus331111113R. Gajda249870
WMay 27 · 16:20M. Adamus4391112113R. Gajda311151051
M. Adamus10
WSep 15 · 15:05M. Adamus2.374121111113R. Skotniczny1.51111013332LSep 15 · 13:55M. Adamus1.8301251182K. Jablonski1.831110118113LSep 15 · 12:45L. Oracz1.551111510113M. Adamus2.3079111252WSep 15 · 11:55M. Adamus2.6511119113M. Durda1.40891161WSep 15 · 10:20M. Adamus2.2011118113L. Oracz1.60971191WSep 15 · 09:05M. Adamus2.301112123R. Skotniczny1.55910100WSep 15 · 07:55M. Adamus1.8381112153K. Jablonski1.8311810131LSep 15 · 06:45R. Gajda1.76711711123M. Adamus1.90119119102WSep 15 · 05:55M. Adamus2.6012113113M. Durda1.421071181LSep 14 · 04:20M. Adamus2.30711771O. Jadach1.5511711113
R. Gajda10
LSep 15 · 15:30L. Oracz1.751114183R. Gajda1.90712160WSep 15 · 14:45R. Gajda3.3011148113M. Durda1.268121121LSep 15 · 13:10R. Gajda1.7561070K. Jablonski1.951112113LSep 15 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.751111133R. Gajda1.9888110LSep 15 · 11:05R. Gajda3.309790M. Durda1.261111113LSep 15 · 09:30R. Gajda2.2310980L. Oracz1.541211113WSep 15 · 08:20R. Gajda2.22912118113R. Skotniczny1.54111071162WSep 15 · 06:45R. Gajda1.76711711123M. Adamus1.90119119102LSep 15 · 05:30R. Gajda1.7494110K. Jablonski1.951111133LSep 9 · 13:55P. Przewlocki1.731114113R. Gajda2.0071280
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