TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13135721
Played Sep 16Finished
Mariusz Koczyba
Home
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111151181012117
Jakub Kaczmarek
Away
3.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:31 and never touched — 64.2% is still 64.2%
Graded at full timeMariusz Koczyba to win
64.2%
64.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
9111151181012117
H2H Mariusz Koczyba 29–6 Jakub Kaczmarek Jakub Kaczmarek has won 6 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:31What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.29 (71%)
Koczyba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-6 in 35
Koczyba
Correct
gap of 23 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Koczyba 1402 vs Kaczmarek 1297
Koczyba
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Koczyba 40% vs Kaczmarek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Koczyba 60% vs Kaczmarek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Koczyba -1 · Kaczmarek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Koczyba) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Koczyba form (40%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKoczyba 1.29 / Kaczmarek 3.10
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Koczyba)+4.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13135721
Koczyba1.29
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 319 of 486
Up 2–0, closes it94% 165 of 175
Up 1–0, closes it81% 226 of 280
Kaczmarek3.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 156 of 478
Down 0–1, comes back18% 54 of 308
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 176
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKoczyba7wins
AwayKaczmarek3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKoczyba leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKoczyba80%4 of 5
AwayKaczmarek40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Koczyba5Kaczmarek5n = 10split evenly
S2Koczyba4Kaczmarek6n = 10Kaczmarek took 6 of 10
S3Koczyba6Kaczmarek4n = 10Koczyba took 6 of 10
S4Koczyba5Kaczmarek2n = 7Koczyba took 5 of 7
S5Koczyba4Kaczmarek1n = 5Koczyba took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoczybaKaczmarekKoczyba − KaczmarekBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.135.1+6.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoczybaKaczmarekBasisWin rate · lifetime856 / 1312 vs 482 / 131465.2%36.7%856 / 1312 vs 482 / 1314Avg sets wonper match2.31.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.335.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoczybaKoczyba 1.29/Kaczmarek 3.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.9%
Koczyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Koczyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 2 · 06:45M. Koczyba48117118113J. Kaczmarek3961151162
WJul 9 · 02:00M. Koczyba331111113J. Kaczmarek195680
WJun 17 · 16:25M. Koczyba49881111113J. Kaczmarek3911118542
LJun 2 · 23:35M. Koczyba2595110J. Kaczmarek351111133
WJun 2 · 17:35M. Koczyba496101111113J. Kaczmarek4511129582
LMay 27 · 15:35M. Koczyba4711791192J. Kaczmarek46511118113
WMay 21 · 17:35M. Koczyba4112711113J. Kaczmarek321011561
WMay 20 · 16:25M. Koczyba49712811113J. Kaczmarek43111011652
WMay 7 · 15:35M. Koczyba331111113J. Kaczmarek156360
LApr 16 · 22:25M. Koczyba378111081J. Kaczmarek3811412113
M. Koczyba10
WSep 16 · 16:25O. Sokolowski2.505640M. Koczyba1.471111113LSep 16 · 15:35M. Koczyba1.61118641M. Adamus2.2071111113WSep 16 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.7351111123G. Marud2.001188101WSep 16 · 24:35M. Koczyba1.73511119113K. Schaniel2.0011781152LSep 15 · 23:20M. Koczyba1.57111051142G. Jurowicz2.25412118113LSep 15 · 22:10P. Adamus1.671211113M. Koczyba2.1010890LSep 15 · 21:20M. Koczyba2.10561971J. Pruszkowski1.67111117113WSep 15 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.831111113P. Adamus1.836870WSep 15 · 18:30M. Koczyba1.6111611113K. Schaniel2.20211961WSep 15 · 17:20M. Koczyba1.731112113G. Jurowicz2.0071060
J. Kaczmarek10
WSep 16 · 16:50S. Krupa1.498111371J. Kaczmarek2.3211915113LSep 16 · 15:10O. Sokolowski1.59116812123J. Kaczmarek2.138111110102WSep 16 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek1.351111113K. Kowalski3.008860LSep 16 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek3.2081111592S. Szostok1.27116911113LSep 16 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek2.2091412692M. Paszkiewicz1.5711121011113LSep 16 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek2.0441080P. Mecik1.641112113WSep 16 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek2.8511811113M. Lebek1.33911991WSep 15 · 08:20M. Cesarz2.4012590J. Kaczmarek1.471411113WSep 15 · 07:35J. Nowak1.9011813101J. Kaczmarek1.80131111123LSep 15 · 05:35A. Ruszkiewicz1.7411811113J. Kaczmarek1.95811581
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