TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13131131
Played Sep 15Finished
Jakub Nowak
Home
1.90
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
111381113111012––
Jakub Kaczmarek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Kaczmarek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
111381113111012––
H2H Jakub Nowak 37–36 Jakub Kaczmarek Jakub Kaczmarek has won 36 of their 73 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:02What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kaczmarek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-36 in 73
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1248 vs Kaczmarek 1316
Kaczmarek
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 60% vs Kaczmarek 40%
Nowak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 40% vs Kaczmarek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak -1 · Kaczmarek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kaczmarek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczmarek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 1.90 / Kaczmarek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kaczmarek)+2.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13131131
Nowak1.90
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 233 of 657
Down 0–1, comes back21% 83 of 396
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 234
Kaczmarek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 65 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it81% 54 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak6wins
AwayKaczmarek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNowak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowak100%5 of 5
AwayKaczmarek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak5Kaczmarek5n = 10split evenly
S2Nowak4Kaczmarek6n = 10Kaczmarek took 6 of 10
S3Nowak6Kaczmarek4n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S4Nowak3Kaczmarek2n = 5Nowak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakKaczmarekN − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.235.3+2.9per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakKaczmarekBasisWin rate · lifetime673 / 1743 vs 479 / 130738.6%36.7%673 / 1743 vs 479 / 1307Avg sets wonper match1.81.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.635.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaczmarekNowak 1.90/Kaczmarek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kaczmarek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kaczmarek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 07:35J. Nowak4211813101J. Kaczmarek47131111123
WAug 26 · 06:00J. Nowak43101111113J. Kaczmarek31124871
LAug 12 · 03:35J. Nowak2449110J. Kaczmarek351111133
WAug 4 · 07:35J. Nowak531211511143J. Kaczmarek551013119122
LJul 17 · 02:45J. Nowak3098130J. Kaczmarek371111153
WJul 7 · 07:10J. Nowak531113711113J. Kaczmarek4791511842
WJun 10 · 05:10J. Nowak351111133J. Kaczmarek2146110
WJun 4 · 07:35J. Nowak331111113J. Kaczmarek176740
WJun 4 · 01:35J. Nowak341112113J. Kaczmarek2171040
LJun 2 · 21:10J. Nowak35871191J. Kaczmarek4211119113
J. Nowak10
WSep 15 · 08:45W. Urban1.5711471172J. Nowak2.17711118113LSep 15 · 06:25R. Idaczyk1.61151311173J. Nowak2.1513155151WSep 15 · 05:10M. Cesarz2.60118119102J. Nowak1.41711711123LSep 15 · 03:35A. Ruszkiewicz1.8311114113J. Nowak1.83891161WSep 14 · 05:05A. Ruszkiewicz1.84810110J. Nowak1.801112133WSep 14 · 03:55J. Nowak2.1111113113O. Vincenec1.60791161LSep 14 · 02:45O. Jadach1.331111113J. Nowak2.857940LSep 14 · 01:30G. Marud1.471111113J. Nowak2.373940LSep 13 · 23:55M. Adamus1.8581111123J. Nowak1.801178101LSep 13 · 23:05O. Jadach1.33115911113J. Nowak2.8581111852
J. Kaczmarek10
WSep 15 · 08:20M. Cesarz2.4012590J. Kaczmarek1.471411113LSep 15 · 05:35A. Ruszkiewicz1.7411811113J. Kaczmarek1.95811581LSep 15 · 04:50R. Idaczyk1.491113113J. Kaczmarek2.3431160WSep 15 · 03:10W. Urban1.60126491J. Kaczmarek2.10101111113WSep 14 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek2.631114113L. Oracz1.4471280LSep 14 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek2.386980P. Kurek1.531111113LSep 14 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek2.00911101342P. Przewlocki1.731191211113WSep 14 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek1.83811119123M. Sikon1.83116811102LSep 14 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek3.509111091K. Slawinski1.2811812113LSep 14 · 07:45M. Sikon1.9111912113J. Kaczmarek1.809111091
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