TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130460
Played Sep 15Finished
Milosz Cesarz
Home
2.60
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1178111179111012
Jakub Nowak
Away
1.41
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:31 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeJakub Nowak to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
97 points played in total.
Set by set
1178111179111012
H2H Milosz Cesarz 7–11 Jakub Nowak Milosz Cesarz has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:31What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.41 (65%)
Nowak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-11 in 18
Nowak
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cesarz 1118 vs Nowak 1261
Nowak
Correct
both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cesarz 40% vs Nowak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cesarz 20% vs Nowak 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cesarz -2 · Nowak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Nowak) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCesarz 2.60 / Nowak 1.41
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Nowak)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13130460
Cesarz2.60
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog23% won 57 of 245
Down 0–1, comes back11% 19 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 114
Nowak1.41
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 71 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it71% 48 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCesarz3wins
AwayNowak7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderNowak leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCesarz33.3%1 of 3
AwayNowak71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cesarz3Nowak7n = 10Nowak took 7 of 10
S2Cesarz6Nowak4n = 10Cesarz took 6 of 10
S3Cesarz5Nowak5n = 10split evenly
S4Cesarz5Nowak3n = 8Cesarz took 5 of 8
S5Cesarz1Nowak5n = 6Nowak took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCesarzNowakC − NBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.744.3−0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCesarzNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 524 vs 672 / 174027.7%38.6%145 / 524 vs 672 / 1740Avg sets wonper match1.41.8per matchAvg pointsper match33.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowakCesarz 2.60/Nowak 1.41
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68%
Nowak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 4 · 06:25M. Cesarz49712101192J. Nowak481110124113
LJul 7 · 08:45M. Cesarz2661190J. Nowak351113113
LMay 26 · 07:35M. Cesarz4471261182J. Nowak501110117113
WMay 19 · 03:10M. Cesarz351311113J. Nowak2211380
LMay 15 · 05:10M. Cesarz3511311101J. Nowak4371113123
WApr 17 · 08:00M. Cesarz5610111311113J. Nowak5112915782
LApr 14 · 07:35M. Cesarz541313152112J. Nowak6315111311133
WApr 8 · 06:00M. Cesarz4291111113J. Nowak31119471
LMar 20 · 09:00M. Cesarz541191310112J. Nowak536111112133
LJan 13 · 09:20M. Cesarz4277111252J. Nowak471111410113
M. Cesarz10
LSep 15 · 06:00W. Urban1.2891111113M. Cesarz3.15112791LSep 15 · 04:00M. Cesarz3.303131121R. Idaczyk1.2611159113LSep 8 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek1.45111211113M. Cesarz2.45714971WSep 8 · 07:35M. Cesarz2.951111610113M. Adamus1.3587111272LSep 8 · 06:25R. Skotniczny1.1981111113M. Cesarz3.80116541WSep 8 · 05:10A. Ruszkiewicz1.508890M. Cesarz2.401111113LSep 8 · 03:35K. Hetnar1.141111113M. Cesarz4.509640LSep 1 · 08:20M. Cesarz4.554970P. Adamus1.151111113LSep 1 · 06:45P. Gumulinski1.258111216153M. Cesarz3.451181414132LSep 1 · 06:00A. Ruszkiewicz1.58111111113M. Cesarz2.19613691
J. Nowak10
LSep 15 · 06:25R. Idaczyk1.61151311173J. Nowak2.1513155151LSep 15 · 03:35A. Ruszkiewicz1.8311114113J. Nowak1.83891161WSep 14 · 05:05A. Ruszkiewicz1.84810110J. Nowak1.801112133WSep 14 · 03:55J. Nowak2.1111113113O. Vincenec1.60791161LSep 14 · 02:45O. Jadach1.331111113J. Nowak2.857940LSep 14 · 01:30G. Marud1.471111113J. Nowak2.373940LSep 13 · 23:55M. Adamus1.8581111123J. Nowak1.801178101LSep 13 · 23:05O. Jadach1.33115911113J. Nowak2.8581111852WSep 13 · 21:55J. Nowak2.0011411153O. Vincenec1.707115131LSep 13 · 20:45A. Ruszkiewicz1.861111113J. Nowak1.835690
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