TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130599
Played Sep 15Finished
Wojciech Urban
Home
1.28
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911112117119––
Milosz Cesarz
Away
3.15
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:01 and never touched — 71.8% is still 71.8%
Graded at full timeWojciech Urban to win
71.8%
71.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
71 points played in total.
Set by set
911112117119––
H2H Wojciech Urban 11–1 Milosz Cesarz Milosz Cesarz has won 1 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:01What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (71%)
Urban
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-1 in 12
Urban
Correct
gap of 10 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1490 vs Cesarz 1108
Urban
Correct
both rated, 382 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 60% vs Cesarz 20%
Urban
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 60% vs Cesarz 20%
Urban
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban +1 · Cesarz -3
Cesarz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Urban) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cesarz form (20%) is below what odds imply (32%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 1.28 / Cesarz 3.15
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Urban)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13130599
Urban1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 163 of 280
Up 2–0, closes it97% 66 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it75% 120 of 160
Cesarz3.15
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog23% won 57 of 245
Down 0–1, comes back11% 19 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrban9wins
AwayCesarz1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderUrban leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrban100%3 of 3
AwayCesarz14.3%1 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban3Cesarz7n = 10Cesarz took 7 of 10
S2Urban9Cesarz1n = 10Urban took 9 of 10
S3Urban8Cesarz2n = 10Urban took 8 of 10
S4Urban5Cesarz1n = 6Urban took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbanCesarzU − CBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.031.9+8.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanCesarzBasisWin rate · lifetime757 / 1600 vs 145 / 52647.3%27.6%757 / 1600 vs 145 / 526Avg sets wonper match1.91.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.033.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanUrban 1.28/Cesarz 3.15
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.4%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 06:00W. Urban4291111113M. Cesarz29112791
WAug 24 · 23:30W. Urban4381211123M. Cesarz3811107101
WAug 24 · 19:10W. Urban571016118123M. Cesarz491214211102
WAug 6 · 07:10W. Urban331111113M. Cesarz137150
WJul 22 · 04:25W. Urban527121011123M. Cesarz461110123102
WJun 23 · 22:35W. Urban4691313113M. Cesarz3811111151
LJun 23 · 15:00W. Urban2231090M. Cesarz341112113
WMay 22 · 03:10W. Urban331111113M. Cesarz195590
WMar 31 · 07:35W. Urban3941311113M. Cesarz371111961
WMar 27 · 07:15W. Urban331111113M. Cesarz165740
W. Urban10
WSep 15 · 04:25W. Urban1.581111113A. Ruszkiewicz2.136840LSep 15 · 03:10W. Urban1.60126491J. Kaczmarek2.10101111113WSep 12 · 14:40W. Urban1.801112117113Z. Sobkow1.9161461182WSep 12 · 13:05W. Urban1.361111113P. Slosarczyk3.007670LSep 12 · 11:50W. Urban2.75811811102A. Cichocki1.40119118123LSep 12 · 10:10W. Urban2.1071190K. Juszczyk1.671113113WSep 12 · 09:00W. Urban1.8011611113M. Paszkiewicz1.91511991WSep 10 · 14:40L. Oracz1.738990W. Urban2.001111113WSep 10 · 13:30W. Urban2.63811811123K. Slawinski1.44117116102LSep 10 · 12:15P. Kurek1.731511113W. Urban2.0013960
M. Cesarz10
LSep 15 · 05:10M. Cesarz2.60118119102J. Nowak1.41711711123LSep 15 · 04:00M. Cesarz3.303131121R. Idaczyk1.2611159113LSep 8 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek1.45111211113M. Cesarz2.45714971WSep 8 · 07:35M. Cesarz2.951111610113M. Adamus1.3587111272LSep 8 · 06:25R. Skotniczny1.1981111113M. Cesarz3.80116541WSep 8 · 05:10A. Ruszkiewicz1.508890M. Cesarz2.401111113LSep 8 · 03:35K. Hetnar1.141111113M. Cesarz4.509640LSep 1 · 08:20M. Cesarz4.554970P. Adamus1.151111113LSep 1 · 06:45P. Gumulinski1.258111216153M. Cesarz3.451181414132LSep 1 · 06:00A. Ruszkiewicz1.58111111113M. Cesarz2.19613691
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