TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130864
Played Sep 15Finished
Rafal Idaczyk
Home
1.61
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
151313151151715––
Jakub Nowak
Away
2.15
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:03 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Idaczyk to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
104 points played in total.
Set by set
151313151151715––
H2H Rafal Idaczyk 27–17 Jakub Nowak Jakub Nowak has won 17 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:03What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (57%)
Idaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-17 in 44
Idaczyk
Correct
gap of 10 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Idaczyk 1387 vs Nowak 1259
Idaczyk
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Idaczyk 80% vs Nowak 60%
Idaczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Idaczyk 40% vs Nowak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Idaczyk +2 · Nowak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Idaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (47%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIdaczyk 1.61 / Nowak 2.15
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Idaczyk)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13130864
Idaczyk1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 107 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it96% 66 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it81% 87 of 108
Nowak2.15
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 233 of 657
Down 0–1, comes back21% 83 of 396
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 234
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIdaczyk7wins
AwayNowak3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderIdaczyk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIdaczyk83.3%5 of 6
AwayNowak50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Idaczyk6Nowak4n = 10Idaczyk took 6 of 10
S2Idaczyk4Nowak6n = 10Nowak took 6 of 10
S3Idaczyk6Nowak4n = 10Idaczyk took 6 of 10
S4Idaczyk6Nowak2n = 8Idaczyk took 6 of 8
S5Idaczyk2Nowak1n = 3Idaczyk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricIdaczykNowakI − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.940.0+1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIdaczykNowakBasisWin rate · lifetime481 / 962 vs 673 / 174250%38.6%481 / 962 vs 673 / 1742Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IdaczykIdaczyk 1.61/Nowak 2.15
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.8%
Idaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Idaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 06:25R. Idaczyk56151311173J. Nowak4813155151
LSep 11 · 03:35R. Idaczyk31912731J. Nowak43111011113
WAug 5 · 16:00R. Idaczyk4011711113J. Nowak33611881
WJul 21 · 03:50R. Idaczyk52911911123J. Nowak49118119102
WJul 16 · 16:00R. Idaczyk331111113J. Nowak239680
WJul 15 · 06:45R. Idaczyk518111110113J. Nowak4411881252
LJun 17 · 06:45R. Idaczyk27101070J. Nowak351212113
WJun 7 · 04:50R. Idaczyk4311911123J. Nowak389118101
LJun 3 · 04:00R. Idaczyk4913961292J. Nowak5411111110113
WMay 26 · 06:25R. Idaczyk3711411113J. Nowak33811771
R. Idaczyk10
WSep 15 · 04:50R. Idaczyk1.491113113J. Kaczmarek2.3431160WSep 15 · 04:00M. Cesarz3.303131121R. Idaczyk1.2611159113LSep 11 · 08:00R. Idaczyk2.353690M. Lebek1.501111113WSep 11 · 06:45R. Idaczyk1.90511118113M. Adamus1.8011981172WSep 11 · 05:35R. Idaczyk1.341111113R. Komandzik3.005660LSep 11 · 04:25Y. Fomin1.801311113R. Idaczyk1.8611850LSep 11 · 03:35R. Idaczyk1.80912731J. Nowak1.85111011113LSep 10 · 13:55R. Idaczyk2.10115921P. Kurek1.6761111113LSep 10 · 12:40R. Idaczyk2.1086100M. Sikon1.671111123LSep 10 · 11:25R. Idaczyk2.6312850K. Slawinski1.441411113
J. Nowak10
WSep 15 · 05:10M. Cesarz2.60118119102J. Nowak1.41711711123LSep 15 · 03:35A. Ruszkiewicz1.8311114113J. Nowak1.83891161WSep 14 · 05:05A. Ruszkiewicz1.84810110J. Nowak1.801112133WSep 14 · 03:55J. Nowak2.1111113113O. Vincenec1.60791161LSep 14 · 02:45O. Jadach1.331111113J. Nowak2.857940LSep 14 · 01:30G. Marud1.471111113J. Nowak2.373940LSep 13 · 23:55M. Adamus1.8581111123J. Nowak1.801178101LSep 13 · 23:05O. Jadach1.33115911113J. Nowak2.8581111852WSep 13 · 21:55J. Nowak2.0011411153O. Vincenec1.707115131WSep 11 · 03:35R. Idaczyk1.80912731J. Nowak1.85111011113
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