TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130462
Played Sep 15Finished
Rafal Idaczyk
Home
1.49
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131311116––––
Jakub Kaczmarek
Away
2.34
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:32 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeRafal Idaczyk to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
1131311116––––
H2H Rafal Idaczyk 59–10 Jakub Kaczmarek Jakub Kaczmarek has won 10 of their 69 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:32What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.49 (61%)
Idaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
59-10 in 69
Idaczyk
Correct
gap of 49 in 69, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Idaczyk 1366 vs Kaczmarek 1321
Idaczyk
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Idaczyk 60% vs Kaczmarek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Idaczyk 30% vs Kaczmarek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Idaczyk +1 · Kaczmarek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Idaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczmarek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIdaczyk 1.49 / Kaczmarek 2.34
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Idaczyk)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13130462
Idaczyk1.49
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 107 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it96% 66 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it81% 87 of 108
Kaczmarek2.34
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 158 of 485
Down 0–1, comes back18% 55 of 312
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 177
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIdaczyk7wins
AwayKaczmarek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderIdaczyk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIdaczyk66.7%6 of 9
AwayKaczmarekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Idaczyk9Kaczmarek1n = 10Idaczyk took 9 of 10
S2Idaczyk7Kaczmarek3n = 10Idaczyk took 7 of 10
S3Idaczyk5Kaczmarek5n = 10split evenly
S4Idaczyk5Kaczmarek2n = 7Idaczyk took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricIdaczykKaczmarekI − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match40.634.6+6.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIdaczykKaczmarekBasisWin rate · lifetime479 / 960 vs 477 / 130349.9%36.6%479 / 960 vs 477 / 1303Avg sets wonper match1.91.6per matchAvg pointsper match35.735.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IdaczykIdaczyk 1.49/Kaczmarek 2.34
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.6%
Idaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Idaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 06:25R. Idaczyk341111123J. Kaczmarek2358100
WAug 11 · 06:25R. Idaczyk3711114113J. Kaczmarek31651191
LJun 29 · 13:05R. Idaczyk4512711962J. Kaczmarek511011811113
WJun 29 · 06:55R. Idaczyk45111112113J. Kaczmarek34781451
WMay 27 · 04:50R. Idaczyk341111123J. Kaczmarek2174100
WMay 26 · 04:00R. Idaczyk4391112113J. Kaczmarek381181091
WMay 20 · 18:00R. Idaczyk331111113J. Kaczmarek214980
WMay 19 · 03:35R. Idaczyk4111118113J. Kaczmarek31581171
LApr 29 · 06:25R. Idaczyk4711119161J. Kaczmarek4861311183
LApr 24 · 08:00R. Idaczyk4711891272J. Kaczmarek485111110113
R. Idaczyk10
WSep 15 · 04:00M. Cesarz3.303131121R. Idaczyk1.2611159113LSep 11 · 08:00R. Idaczyk2.353690M. Lebek1.501111113WSep 11 · 06:45R. Idaczyk1.90511118113M. Adamus1.8011981172WSep 11 · 05:35R. Idaczyk1.341111113R. Komandzik3.005660LSep 11 · 04:25Y. Fomin1.801311113R. Idaczyk1.8611850LSep 11 · 03:35R. Idaczyk1.80912731J. Nowak1.85111011113LSep 10 · 13:55R. Idaczyk2.10115921P. Kurek1.6761111113LSep 10 · 12:40R. Idaczyk2.1086100M. Sikon1.671111123LSep 10 · 11:25R. Idaczyk2.6312850K. Slawinski1.441411113LSep 10 · 10:10L. Oracz1.53111176153R. Idaczyk2.38821111132
J. Kaczmarek10
LSep 15 · 05:35A. Ruszkiewicz1.7411811113J. Kaczmarek1.95811581WSep 15 · 03:10W. Urban1.60126491J. Kaczmarek2.10101111113WSep 14 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek2.631114113L. Oracz1.4471280LSep 14 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek2.386980P. Kurek1.531111113LSep 14 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek2.00911101342P. Przewlocki1.731191211113WSep 14 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek1.83811119123M. Sikon1.83116811102LSep 14 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek3.509111091K. Slawinski1.2811812113LSep 14 · 07:45M. Sikon1.9111912113J. Kaczmarek1.809111091WSep 14 · 06:55P. Kurek1.4491050J. Kaczmarek2.631112113LSep 14 · 06:05J. Kaczmarek3.0059110L. Oracz1.361111133
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