TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13138963
Played Sep 16Finished
Sebastian Krupa
Home
1.49
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111191315711––
Jakub Kaczmarek
Away
2.32
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:28 and never touched — 65.2% is still 65.2%
Graded at full timeSebastian Krupa to win
65.2%
65.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
8111191315711––
H2H Sebastian Krupa 15–3 Jakub Kaczmarek Jakub Kaczmarek has won 3 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:28What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.49 (61%)
Krupa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-3 in 18
Krupa
Wrong
gap of 12 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupa 1368 vs Kaczmarek 1282
Krupa
Wrong
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupa 80% vs Kaczmarek 20%
Krupa
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupa 60% vs Kaczmarek 40%
Krupa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupa +4 · Kaczmarek -1
Krupa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Krupa) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczmarek form (20%) is below what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupa 1.49 / Kaczmarek 2.32
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Krupa)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13138963
Krupa1.49
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 114 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it94% 51 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it80% 84 of 105
Kaczmarek2.32
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 156 of 478
Down 0–1, comes back18% 54 of 308
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 176
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupa9wins
AwayKaczmarek1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKrupa leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupa88.9%8 of 9
AwayKaczmarekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupa9Kaczmarek1n = 10Krupa took 9 of 10
S2Krupa6Kaczmarek4n = 10Krupa took 6 of 10
S3Krupa8Kaczmarek2n = 10Krupa took 8 of 10
S4Krupa3Kaczmarek2n = 5Krupa took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupaKaczmarekKrupa − KaczmarekBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match40.531.5+9.0per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupaKaczmarekBasisWin rate · lifetime304 / 606 vs 481 / 131350.2%36.6%304 / 606 vs 481 / 1313Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.835.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupaKrupa 1.49/Kaczmarek 2.32
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.2%
Krupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kaczmarek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 11 · 15:35S. Krupa331111113J. Kaczmarek205780
WJul 25 · 08:20S. Krupa5714101111113J. Kaczmarek4916129842
LJun 17 · 19:10S. Krupa421299121J. Kaczmarek46101111143
WMay 27 · 17:10S. Krupa331111113J. Kaczmarek182790
WMay 11 · 02:00S. Krupa4211911113J. Kaczmarek28711551
WMay 1 · 04:25S. Krupa331111113J. Kaczmarek226880
WApr 7 · 07:10S. Krupa4111118113J. Kaczmarek33881161
WApr 5 · 04:25S. Krupa331111113J. Kaczmarek208570
WFeb 4 · 19:00S. Krupa351111133J. Kaczmarek2595110
WDec 28 · 23:25S. Krupa56119119163J. Kaczmarek54911911142
S. Krupa10
LSep 16 · 16:00A. Ruszkiewicz2.1611711113S. Krupa1.57911971WSep 14 · 02:00S. Krupa1.4511811113G. Sawicki2.42911761WSep 14 · 24:45S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.404360WSep 13 · 23:35S. Krupa1.52116711113R. Adach2.3771111832WSep 13 · 22:25I. Szymanski3.3011190S. Krupa1.251113113LSep 13 · 21:35S. Krupa2.50419211162P. Polok1.471117119183WSep 13 · 20:20S. Krupa1.451111113R. Adach2.432250LSep 13 · 18:45R. Ogon3.20114812113S. Krupa1.27911111092WSep 13 · 18:00G. Sawicki2.50811631S. Krupa1.4211911113LSep 13 · 17:10S. Krupa2.505580P. Polok1.441111113
J. Kaczmarek10
LSep 16 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.299111110113J. Kaczmarek3.1011581272LSep 16 · 15:10O. Sokolowski1.59116812123J. Kaczmarek2.138111110102WSep 16 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek1.351111113K. Kowalski3.008860LSep 16 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek3.2081111592S. Szostok1.27116911113LSep 16 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek2.2091412692M. Paszkiewicz1.5711121011113LSep 16 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek2.0441080P. Mecik1.641112113WSep 16 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek2.8511811113M. Lebek1.33911991WSep 15 · 08:20M. Cesarz2.4012590J. Kaczmarek1.471411113WSep 15 · 07:35J. Nowak1.9011813101J. Kaczmarek1.80131111123LSep 15 · 05:35A. Ruszkiewicz1.7411811113J. Kaczmarek1.95811581
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