TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13124019
Played Sep 13Finished
Rafal Ogon
Home
3.20
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1194118111210119
Sebastian Krupa
Away
1.27
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:24 and never touched — 65.8% is still 65.8%
Graded at full timeSebastian Krupa to win
65.8%
65.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
1194118111210119
H2H Rafal Ogon 10–16 Sebastian Krupa Rafal Ogon has won 10 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:24What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.27 (72%)
Krupa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-16 in 26
Krupa
Wrong
gap of 6 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogon 1076 vs Krupa 1352
Krupa
Wrong
both rated, 276 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogon 0% vs Krupa 40%
Krupa
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogon 10% vs Krupa 30%
Krupa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogon -5 · Krupa +1
Ogon
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Krupa) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupa form (40%) is below what odds imply (79%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgon 3.20 / Krupa 1.27
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Krupa)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13124019
Ogon3.20
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog27% won 40 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back12% 12 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 68
Krupa1.27
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite63% won 109 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it94% 49 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it79% 79 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOgon4wins
AwayKrupa6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKrupa leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgon100%3 of 3
AwayKrupa85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogon3Krupa7n = 10Krupa took 7 of 10
S2Ogon3Krupa7n = 10Krupa took 7 of 10
S3Ogon3Krupa7n = 10Krupa took 7 of 10
S4Ogon2Krupa2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricOgonKrupaO − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.838.4−6.6per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgonKrupaBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 421 vs 299 / 59924.9%49.9%105 / 421 vs 299 / 599Avg sets wonper match1.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupaOgon 3.20/Krupa 1.27
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.8%
Krupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ogon won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 21:35R. Ogon156540S. Krupa331111113
LSep 6 · 20:20R. Ogon31712751S. Krupa43111011113
LAug 17 · 24:00R. Ogon184950S. Krupa331111113
WAug 16 · 16:00R. Ogon4412912113S. Krupa4010111091
LAug 9 · 21:10R. Ogon237790S. Krupa331111113
WAug 9 · 16:50R. Ogon65920166143S. Krupa6611181411122
WJul 20 · 02:20R. Ogon46125711113S. Krupa45101111762
WJul 19 · 20:20R. Ogon351311113S. Krupa2511770
LJun 22 · 24:00R. Ogon197570S. Krupa331111113
LJun 21 · 16:00R. Ogon226880S. Krupa331111113
R. Ogon10
LSep 13 · 17:35R. Ogon2.501161031R. Adach1.4691112113LSep 13 · 16:25G. Sawicki1.49111110123R. Ogon2.346812101LSep 13 · 15:35R. Ogon4.0091210P. Polok1.201114113LSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630LSep 7 · 01:35R. Ogon5.00671171J. Pruszkowski1.1211119113LSep 7 · 24:25K. Schaniel1.27111110113R. Ogon3.20391241LSep 6 · 23:10J. Nowak1.3413116113R. Ogon2.901181181LSep 6 · 21:35S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.506540LSep 6 · 20:20R. Ogon3.85712751S. Krupa1.20111011113WSep 6 · 18:45G. Sawicki1.605119131R. Ogon2.1011411153
S. Krupa10
WSep 13 · 18:00G. Sawicki2.50811631S. Krupa1.4211911113LSep 13 · 17:10S. Krupa2.505580P. Polok1.441111113LSep 13 · 16:00S. Krupa2.10911881K. Juszczyk1.6511711113LSep 12 · 01:45S. Krupa1.91781151K. Schaniel1.8011119113WSep 12 · 24:35S. Krupa1.5391113113A. Ruszkiewicz2.381191151LSep 11 · 23:20S. Krupa2.208760L. Oracz1.611111113WSep 11 · 22:10G. Sawicki2.7511118101S. Krupa1.4081311123LSep 11 · 21:20S. Krupa2.10118160O. Vincenec1.671311183WSep 6 · 21:35S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.506540WSep 6 · 20:20R. Ogon3.85712751S. Krupa1.20111011113
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