TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114898
Played Sep 12Finished
Sebastian Krupa
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711811119511––
Krzysztof Schaniel
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSebastian Krupa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSebastian Krupa above · Krzysztof Schaniel below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 73 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Sebastian Krupa at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Krupa 8–8 Krzysztof Schaniel Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Krupa beat Schaniel 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:35What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Schaniel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupa 1371 vs Schaniel 1442
Schaniel
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupa 40% vs Schaniel 60%
Schaniel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupa 40% vs Schaniel 60%
Schaniel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupa +1 · Schaniel +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Schaniel) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krupa form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupa 1.91 / Schaniel 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Schaniel)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13114898
Krupa1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 70 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 50
Schaniel1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 213 of 361
Up 2–0, closes it90% 102 of 114
Up 1–0, closes it77% 160 of 208
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupa5wins
AwaySchaniel5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupa80%4 of 5
AwaySchaniel80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupa5Schaniel5n = 10split evenly
S2Krupa5Schaniel5n = 10split evenly
S3Krupa4Schaniel6n = 10Schaniel took 6 of 10
S4Krupa6Schaniel2n = 8Krupa took 6 of 8
S5Krupa2Schaniel3n = 5Schaniel took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupaSchanielK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.739.9+0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupaSchanielBasisWin rate · lifetime298 / 595 vs 869 / 174450.1%49.8%298 / 595 vs 869 / 1744Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchanielKrupa 1.91/Schaniel 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Schaniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Schaniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 16:15S. Krupa—11114113K. Schaniel—761121
LSep 7 · 02:00S. Krupa—71190K. Schaniel—1113113
LAug 15 · 04:00S. Krupa—1110871K. Schaniel—91211113
LAug 7 · 15:05S. Krupa—911111192K. Schaniel—114139113
WAug 7 · 09:05S. Krupa—1081111113K. Schaniel—12119552
WJan 26 · 01:00S. Krupa—13411113K. Schaniel—1111791
LDec 3 · 21:20S. Krupa—71181192K. Schaniel—118119113
WOct 8 · 15:35S. Krupa—117115113K. Schaniel—61191152
LOct 1 · 16:25S. Krupa—51141482K. Schaniel—1191112113
WSep 3 · 20:20S. Krupa—1111113K. Schaniel—8670
S. Krupa10
WSep 12 · 24:35S. Krupa1.5391113113A. Ruszkiewicz2.381191151LSep 11 · 23:20S. Krupa2.208760L. Oracz1.611111113WSep 11 · 22:10G. Sawicki2.7511118101S. Krupa1.4081311123LSep 11 · 21:20S. Krupa2.10118160O. Vincenec1.671311183LSep 11 · 19:40S. Krupa1.67121031362O. Sokolowski2.1010121111113LSep 11 · 18:30S. Krupa1.53761451A. Ruszkiewicz2.38111112113LSep 11 · 17:20S. Krupa1.915370L. Oracz1.801111113WSep 11 · 16:15K. Schaniel1.80761121S. Krupa1.9111114113LSep 11 · 15:25S. Krupa2.10811951O. Vincenec1.6711511113WSep 9 · 20:00M. Koczyba1.70851191S. Krupa2.0011117113
K. Schaniel10
WSep 12 · 01:00G. Sawicki2.6381260K. Schaniel1.441114113LSep 12 · 24:10K. Schaniel1.67811311102O. Vincenec2.10118116123WSep 11 · 22:35K. Schaniel2.25114911113L. Oracz1.5771111682LSep 11 · 21:45A. Ruszkiewicz2.0011118123K. Schaniel1.733711101WSep 11 · 20:30K. Schaniel1.73117915113O. Vincenec2.00811111372WSep 11 · 18:55K. Schaniel1.8011117113O. Sokolowski1.91791191WSep 11 · 17:45K. Schaniel1.73612116113A. Ruszkiewicz2.00111091172LSep 11 · 16:15K. Schaniel1.80761121S. Krupa1.9111114113WSep 11 · 15:00K. Schaniel2.3811118113L. Oracz1.53641171LSep 9 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.911561011113K. Schaniel1.80131112762
Upcoming Matches
S. Krupa
Nothing scheduled
K. Schaniel2 of 10 neutral
Sep 12 · 17:55K. Schaniel—R. Szymik——Sep 12 · 19:30K. Schaniel—A. Szurgot——Sep 12 · 20:45K. Schaniel—P. Gasiorski——Sep 12 · 21:55K. Schaniel—G. Sawicki——Sep 12 · 23:05K. Schaniel—R. Wiza——Sep 12 · 23:55K. Schaniel—R. Szymik——Sep 13 · 01:30K. Schaniel—A. Szurgot——Sep 13 · 02:45K. Schaniel—R. Wiza——Sep 13 · 03:55K. Schaniel—G. Sawicki——Sep 13 · 05:05K. Schaniel—O. Sokolowski——
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