TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13123712
Played Sep 13Finished
Rafal Ogon
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1196111012311––
Rafal Adach
Away
1.46
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:10 and never touched — 71.7% is still 71.7%
Graded at full timeRafal Adach to win
71.7%
71.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
1196111012311––
H2H Rafal Ogon 1–4 Rafal Adach Rafal Ogon has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:10What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (63%)
Adach
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Adach
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogon 1083 vs Adach 1273
Adach
Correct
both rated, 190 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogon 0% vs Adach 60%
Adach
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogon 10% vs Adach 60%
Adach
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogon -5 · Adach +2
Ogon
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Adach) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogon form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgon 2.50 / Adach 1.46
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Adach)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13123712
Ogon2.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog27% won 40 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back12% 12 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 68
Adach1.46
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite53% won 40 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it81% 25 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it66% 33 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeOgon1wins
AwayAdach4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderAdach leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgonn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayAdach80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogon0Adach5n = 5Adach took 5 of 5
S2Ogon3Adach2n = 5Ogon took 3 of 5
S3Ogon2Adach3n = 5Adach took 3 of 5
S4Ogon1Adach2n = 3Adach took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricOgonAdachO − ABasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match31.238.4−7.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgonAdachBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 420 vs 240 / 57825%41.5%105 / 420 vs 240 / 578Avg sets wonper match1.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match33.734.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdachOgon 2.50/Adach 1.46
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.1%
Adach · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Adach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 6 · 18:00R. Ogon44612123112R. Adach5511101011133
LAug 10 · 01:35R. Ogon236890R. Adach331111113
LAug 9 · 19:35R. Ogon187740R. Adach331111113
LApr 20 · 24:45R. Ogon31511781R. Adach3811511113
WApr 19 · 18:45R. Ogon4071111113R. Adach33116971
R. Ogon10
WSep 13 · 18:45R. Ogon3.20114812113S. Krupa1.27911111092LSep 13 · 16:25G. Sawicki1.49111110123R. Ogon2.346812101LSep 13 · 15:35R. Ogon4.0091210P. Polok1.201114113LSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630LSep 7 · 01:35R. Ogon5.00671171J. Pruszkowski1.1211119113LSep 7 · 24:25K. Schaniel1.27111110113R. Ogon3.20391241LSep 6 · 23:10J. Nowak1.3413116113R. Ogon2.901181181LSep 6 · 21:35S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.506540LSep 6 · 20:20R. Ogon3.85712751S. Krupa1.20111011113WSep 6 · 18:45G. Sawicki1.605119131R. Ogon2.1011411153
R. Adach10
LSep 13 · 19:35P. Polok1.241311143R. Adach3.40115120WSep 13 · 16:50K. Juszczyk1.3571560R. Adach2.801117113WSep 13 · 15:10G. Sawicki1.85591161R. Adach1.7911118113LSep 6 · 20:45R. Adach1.83114841W. Jozala1.8671111113LSep 6 · 19:10R. Adach3.00441181K. Juszczyk1.3211116113WSep 6 · 18:00R. Adach1.5411101011133R. Ogon2.25612123112LSep 6 · 16:25R. Adach1.85131111792G. Sawicki1.851113611113LSep 6 · 15:10R. Adach2.7076100S. Krupa1.391111123WSep 6 · 05:05L. Bernacki1.8571270R. Adach1.801114113WSep 6 · 03:55R. Adach3.3518118113P. Polok1.271661181
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