TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13123723
Played Sep 13Finished
Grzegorz Sawicki
Home
1.49
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11611810121210––
Rafal Ogon
Away
2.34
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:10 and never touched — 69.0% is still 69.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Sawicki to win
69.0%
69.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
80 points played in total.
Set by set
11611810121210––
H2H Grzegorz Sawicki 27–12 Rafal Ogon Rafal Ogon has won 12 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:10What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.49 (61%)
Sawicki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-12 in 39
Sawicki
Correct
gap of 15 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sawicki 1231 vs Ogon 1092
Sawicki
Correct
both rated, 140 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sawicki 40% vs Ogon 0%
Sawicki
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sawicki 30% vs Ogon 10%
Sawicki
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sawicki -1 · Ogon -5
Ogon
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Sawicki) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogon form (0%) is below what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSawicki 1.49 / Ogon 2.34
Signal prob.66% / 35%
Edge (Sawicki)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13123723
Sawicki1.49
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 44 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it100% 27 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it86% 37 of 43
Ogon2.34
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog27% won 40 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back12% 12 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSawicki4wins
AwayOgon6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOgon leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSawicki100%4 of 4
AwayOgon100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sawicki4Ogon6n = 10Ogon took 6 of 10
S2Sawicki5Ogon5n = 10split evenly
S3Sawicki3Ogon7n = 10Ogon took 7 of 10
S4Sawicki1Ogon3n = 4Ogon took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSawickiOgonS − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.135.8−1.7per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSawickiOgonBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 901 vs 105 / 41939.3%25.1%354 / 901 vs 105 / 419Avg sets wonper match1.81.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.933.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SawickiSawicki 1.49/Ogon 2.34
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.5%
Sawicki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sawicki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 18:45G. Sawicki385119131R. Ogon4111411153
WAug 17 · 24:45G. Sawicki49111215113R. Ogon398101741
WAug 16 · 18:45G. Sawicki442211113R. Ogon3320580
WJul 19 · 16:50G. Sawicki331111113R. Ogon215880
LJun 22 · 01:10G. Sawicki225890R. Ogon331111113
LJun 21 · 19:10G. Sawicki217860R. Ogon331111113
LJun 8 · 01:10G. Sawicki259970R. Ogon331111113
WJun 7 · 19:10G. Sawicki51128119113R. Ogon48101171192
LJun 1 · 24:25G. Sawicki2511860R. Ogon351311113
LMay 31 · 20:45G. Sawicki33711781R. Ogon4211911113
G. Sawicki10
LSep 13 · 15:10G. Sawicki1.85591161R. Adach1.7911118113WSep 13 · 04:40A. Szurgot2.754990G. Sawicki1.371111113LSep 13 · 03:55K. Schaniel1.471111711113G. Sawicki2.5081311772WSep 13 · 01:55R. Szymik1.558118131G. Sawicki2.3011911153LSep 13 · 01:10R. Wiza1.771691110113G. Sawicki1.87141161262LSep 12 · 23:30O. Sokolowski1.5281117113G. Sawicki2.271141561WSep 12 · 22:40A. Szurgot2.5581251162G. Sawicki1.451110118113LSep 12 · 21:55K. Schaniel1.571211113G. Sawicki2.2010780LSep 12 · 19:55R. Szymik1.321211113G. Sawicki2.9510960LSep 12 · 19:10P. Gasiorski1.091111113G. Sawicki5.455620
R. Ogon10
LSep 13 · 15:35R. Ogon4.0091210P. Polok1.201114113LSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630LSep 7 · 01:35R. Ogon5.00671171J. Pruszkowski1.1211119113LSep 7 · 24:25K. Schaniel1.27111110113R. Ogon3.20391241LSep 6 · 23:10J. Nowak1.3413116113R. Ogon2.901181181LSep 6 · 21:35S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.506540LSep 6 · 20:20R. Ogon3.85712751S. Krupa1.20111011113WSep 6 · 18:45G. Sawicki1.605119131R. Ogon2.1011411153LSep 6 · 18:00R. Adach1.5411101011133R. Ogon2.25612123112LSep 6 · 17:10R. Ogon2.60161171W. Jozala1.4211119113
Upcoming Matches
G. Sawicki
Sep 13 · 18:00G. Sawicki2.50S. Krupa1.42—Sep 13 · 19:10G. Sawicki2.90K. Juszczyk1.33—Sep 13 · 20:45G. Sawicki3.65P. Polok1.21—Sep 13 · 22:00G. Sawicki1.46R. Ogon2.42—Sep 13 · 22:50G. Sawicki1.88R. Adach1.76—Sep 14 · 24:25G. Sawicki3.65P. Polok1.21—Sep 14 · 01:10G. Sawicki1.51I. Szymanski2.29—Sep 14 · 02:00G. Sawicki2.42S. Krupa1.45—
R. Ogon
Sep 13 · 17:35R. Ogon2.50R. Adach1.46—Sep 13 · 18:45R. Ogon3.55S. Krupa1.22—Sep 13 · 20:00R. Ogon4.05K. Juszczyk1.17—Sep 13 · 22:00R. Ogon2.42G. Sawicki1.46—Sep 13 · 23:10R. Ogon5.00P. Polok1.11—Sep 14 · 24:00R. Ogon1.87I. Szymanski1.77—Sep 14 · 24:45R. Ogon3.40S. Krupa1.24—Sep 14 · 02:20R. Ogon2.47R. Adach1.44—
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