TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13124012
Played Sep 13Finished
Pawel Polok
Home
1.24
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
13111151412––––
Rafal Adach
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:22 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
66 points played in total.
Set by set
13111151412––––
H2H Pawel Polok 1–1 Rafal Adach Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:22What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.24 (73%)
Polok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Polok 1503 vs Adach 1280
Polok
Correct
both rated, 223 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polok 80% vs Adach 60%
Polok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polok 80% vs Adach 60%
Polok
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polok +4 · Adach +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Polok) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adach form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolok 1.24 / Adach 3.40
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Polok)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13124012
Polok1.24
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 67 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it83% 54 of 65
Adach3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 81 of 246
Down 0–1, comes back15% 22 of 144
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePolok1wins
AwayAdach1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPolokAdachP − ABasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match37.029.0+8.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolokAdachBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 168 vs 241 / 57964.3%41.6%108 / 168 vs 241 / 579Avg sets wonper match2.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.734.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokPolok 1.24/Adach 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.1%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Polok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 6 · 03:55P. Polok411661181R. Adach4818118113
WSep 5 · 21:55P. Polok331111113R. Adach104330
P. Polok10
WSep 13 · 18:25K. Juszczyk1.9511870P. Polok1.751311113WSep 13 · 17:10S. Krupa2.505580P. Polok1.441111113WSep 13 · 15:35R. Ogon4.0091210P. Polok1.201114113WSep 6 · 04:40A. Szurgot4.802460P. Polok1.131111113LSep 6 · 03:55R. Adach3.3518118113P. Polok1.271661181WSep 6 · 01:55R. Szymik1.689111381P. Polok2.0711615113WSep 6 · 01:10R. Wiza3.6610760P. Polok1.241211113LSep 5 · 23:30L. Bernacki2.40111011173P. Polok1.503124151WSep 5 · 22:40A. Szurgot4.503139111P. Polok1.17111111133WSep 5 · 21:55R. Adach3.154330P. Polok1.291111113
R. Adach10
WSep 13 · 17:35R. Ogon2.501161031R. Adach1.4691112113WSep 13 · 16:50K. Juszczyk1.3571560R. Adach2.801117113WSep 13 · 15:10G. Sawicki1.85591161R. Adach1.7911118113LSep 6 · 20:45R. Adach1.83114841W. Jozala1.8671111113LSep 6 · 19:10R. Adach3.00441181K. Juszczyk1.3211116113WSep 6 · 18:00R. Adach1.5411101011133R. Ogon2.25612123112LSep 6 · 16:25R. Adach1.85131111792G. Sawicki1.851113611113LSep 6 · 15:10R. Adach2.7076100S. Krupa1.391111123WSep 6 · 03:55R. Adach3.3518118113P. Polok1.271661181LSep 5 · 21:55R. Adach3.154330P. Polok1.291111113
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