TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125248
Played Sep 14Finished
Sebastian Krupa
Home
1.45
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119811117116––
Grzegorz Sawicki
Away
2.42
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:07 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeSebastian Krupa to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
119811117116––
H2H Sebastian Krupa 28–11 Grzegorz Sawicki Grzegorz Sawicki has won 11 of their 39 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Krupa beat Sawicki 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:07What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Krupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-11 in 39
Krupa
Correct
gap of 17 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupa 1359 vs Sawicki 1270
Krupa
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupa 80% vs Sawicki 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupa 50% vs Sawicki 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupa +3 · Sawicki +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Krupa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sawicki form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (41%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupa 1.45 / Sawicki 2.42
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Krupa)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13125248
Krupa1.45
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 109 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it94% 49 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it79% 79 of 100
Sawicki2.42
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 127 of 385
Down 0–1, comes back18% 46 of 253
Down 0–2, comes back7% 11 of 162
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupa8wins
AwaySawicki2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKrupa leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupa83.3%5 of 6
AwaySawicki33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupa6Sawicki3n = 9Krupa took 6 of 9
S2Krupa5Sawicki4n = 9Krupa took 5 of 9
S3Krupa8Sawicki1n = 9Krupa took 8 of 9
S4Krupa4Sawicki2n = 6Krupa took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupaSawickiK − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match41.632.9+8.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupaSawickiBasisWin rate · lifetime303 / 605 vs 359 / 90950.1%39.5%303 / 605 vs 359 / 909Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrupaKrupa 1.45/Sawicki 2.42
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Krupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 13 · 18:00S. Krupa4211911113G. Sawicki28811631
WSep 11 · 22:10S. Krupa4481311123G. Sawicki4011118101
WSep 6 · 17:35S. Krupa44111111113G. Sawicki27531361
WAug 31 · 02:00S. Krupa351211123G. Sawicki27107100
WAug 30 · 16:25S. Krupa5510121111113G. Sawicki4712148762
WAug 24 · 24:45S. Krupa331111113G. Sawicki173770
LAug 16 · 22:25S. Krupa50111111892G. Sawicki50613911113
WAug 16 · 20:00S. Krupa331111113G. Sawicki205780
LJul 19 · 16:00S. Krupa3871011101G. Sawicki4011125123
S. Krupa10
WSep 14 · 24:45S. Krupa1.241111113R. Ogon3.404360WSep 13 · 23:35S. Krupa1.52116711113R. Adach2.3771111832WSep 13 · 22:25I. Szymanski3.3011190S. Krupa1.251113113LSep 13 · 21:35S. Krupa2.50419211162P. Polok1.471117119183WSep 13 · 20:20S. Krupa1.451111113R. Adach2.432250LSep 13 · 18:45R. Ogon3.20114812113S. Krupa1.27911111092WSep 13 · 18:00G. Sawicki2.50811631S. Krupa1.4211911113LSep 13 · 17:10S. Krupa2.505580P. Polok1.441111113LSep 13 · 16:00S. Krupa2.10911881K. Juszczyk1.6511711113LSep 12 · 01:45S. Krupa1.91781151K. Schaniel1.8011119113
G. Sawicki10
WSep 14 · 01:10I. Szymanski2.303560G. Sawicki1.551111113WSep 14 · 24:25G. Sawicki3.65616115113P. Polok1.21111451172WSep 13 · 22:50G. Sawicki1.88891111113R. Adach1.7611114982WSep 13 · 22:00R. Ogon2.42812861G. Sawicki1.46111011113LSep 13 · 20:45G. Sawicki3.658111151P. Polok1.2111913113LSep 13 · 19:10G. Sawicki2.90914951K. Juszczyk1.33111211113LSep 13 · 18:00G. Sawicki2.50811631S. Krupa1.4211911113WSep 13 · 16:25G. Sawicki1.49111110123R. Ogon2.346812101LSep 13 · 15:10G. Sawicki1.85591161R. Adach1.7911118113WSep 13 · 04:40A. Szurgot2.754990G. Sawicki1.371111113
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