TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125261
Played Sep 14Finished
Grzegorz Sawicki
Home
3.65
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111614115511117
Pawel Polok
Away
1.21
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:10 and never touched — 77.9% is still 77.9%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
77.9%
77.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
97 points played in total.
Set by set
6111614115511117
H2H Grzegorz Sawicki 2–3 Pawel Polok Grzegorz Sawicki has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Polok beat Sawicki 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:10What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.21 (75%)
Polok
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sawicki 1241 vs Polok 1524
Polok
Wrong
both rated, 283 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sawicki 40% vs Polok 100%
Polok
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sawicki 50% vs Polok 90%
Polok
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sawicki +2 · Polok +5
Polok
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Polok)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polok form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSawicki 3.65 / Polok 1.21
Signal prob.22% / 78%
Edge (Polok)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13125261
Sawicki3.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 127 of 385
Down 0–1, comes back18% 46 of 253
Down 0–2, comes back7% 11 of 162
Polok1.21
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 67 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it83% 54 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSawicki2wins
AwayPolok3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderPolok leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSawickin = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayPolok60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sawicki0Polok5n = 5Polok took 5 of 5
S2Sawicki4Polok1n = 5Sawicki took 4 of 5
S3Sawicki2Polok3n = 5Polok took 3 of 5
S4Sawicki2Polok3n = 5Polok took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away360%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSawickiPolokS − PBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match39.639.60.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSawickiPolokBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 907 vs 112 / 17239.4%65.1%357 / 907 vs 112 / 172Avg sets wonper match1.82.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokSawicki 3.65/Polok 1.21
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
78.3%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sawicki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 13 · 20:45G. Sawicki358111151P. Polok4411913113
WAug 30 · 24:45G. Sawicki4281112113P. Polok301121071
WAug 29 · 22:20G. Sawicki47611811113P. Polok4011411772
LAug 9 · 11:30G. Sawicki389136101P. Polok45111111123
LAug 9 · 07:10G. Sawicki369101161P. Polok3911125113
G. Sawicki10
WSep 13 · 22:50G. Sawicki1.88891111113R. Adach1.7611114982WSep 13 · 22:00R. Ogon2.42812861G. Sawicki1.46111011113LSep 13 · 20:45G. Sawicki3.658111151P. Polok1.2111913113LSep 13 · 19:10G. Sawicki2.90914951K. Juszczyk1.33111211113LSep 13 · 18:00G. Sawicki2.50811631S. Krupa1.4211911113WSep 13 · 16:25G. Sawicki1.49111110123R. Ogon2.346812101LSep 13 · 15:10G. Sawicki1.85591161R. Adach1.7911118113WSep 13 · 04:40A. Szurgot2.754990G. Sawicki1.371111113LSep 13 · 03:55K. Schaniel1.471111711113G. Sawicki2.5081311772WSep 13 · 01:55R. Szymik1.558118131G. Sawicki2.3011911153
P. Polok10
WSep 13 · 23:10R. Ogon5.00113118102P. Polok1.12811911123WSep 13 · 21:35S. Krupa2.50419211162P. Polok1.471117119183WSep 13 · 20:45G. Sawicki3.658111151P. Polok1.2111913113WSep 13 · 19:35P. Polok1.241311143R. Adach3.40115120WSep 13 · 18:25K. Juszczyk1.9511870P. Polok1.751311113WSep 13 · 17:10S. Krupa2.505580P. Polok1.441111113WSep 13 · 15:35R. Ogon4.0091210P. Polok1.201114113WSep 6 · 04:40A. Szurgot4.802460P. Polok1.131111113LSep 6 · 03:55R. Adach3.3518118113P. Polok1.271661181WSep 6 · 01:55R. Szymik1.689111381P. Polok2.0711615113
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