TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125273
Played Sep 13Finished
Rafal Ogon
Home
5.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1183111198111012
Pawel Polok
Away
1.12
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:52 and never touched — 76.5% is still 76.5%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
76.5%
76.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
1183111198111012
H2H Rafal Ogon 0–1 Pawel Polok Rafal Ogon has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Polok beat Ogon 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.12 (82%)
Polok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ogon 1083 vs Polok 1520
Polok
Correct
both rated, 437 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogon 20% vs Polok 100%
Polok
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogon 10% vs Polok 90%
Polok
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogon -2 · Polok +5
Polok
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 85% — Strong (leans Polok) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polok form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (89%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgon 5.00 / Polok 1.12
Signal prob.16% / 85%
Edge (Polok)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13125273
Ogon5.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog27% won 40 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back12% 12 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 68
Polok1.12
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite64% won 67 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it83% 54 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeOgon0wins
AwayPolok1wins
Polok leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricOgonPolokO − PBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match22.036.0−14.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgonPolokBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 424 vs 111 / 17125%64.9%106 / 424 vs 111 / 171Avg sets wonper match1.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match33.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokOgon 5.00/Polok 1.12
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.5%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Polok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 13 · 15:35R. Ogon2291210P. Polok361114113
R. Ogon10
LSep 13 · 22:00R. Ogon2.42812861G. Sawicki1.46111011113LSep 13 · 20:00R. Ogon3.756850K. Juszczyk1.221111113WSep 13 · 18:45R. Ogon3.20114812113S. Krupa1.27911111092LSep 13 · 17:35R. Ogon2.501161031R. Adach1.4691112113LSep 13 · 16:25G. Sawicki1.49111110123R. Ogon2.346812101LSep 13 · 15:35R. Ogon4.0091210P. Polok1.201114113LSep 7 · 02:45P. Adamus1.091111113R. Ogon5.707630LSep 7 · 01:35R. Ogon5.00671171J. Pruszkowski1.1211119113LSep 7 · 24:25K. Schaniel1.27111110113R. Ogon3.20391241LSep 6 · 23:10J. Nowak1.3413116113R. Ogon2.901181181
P. Polok10
WSep 13 · 21:35S. Krupa2.50419211162P. Polok1.471117119183WSep 13 · 20:45G. Sawicki3.658111151P. Polok1.2111913113WSep 13 · 19:35P. Polok1.241311143R. Adach3.40115120WSep 13 · 18:25K. Juszczyk1.9511870P. Polok1.751311113WSep 13 · 17:10S. Krupa2.505580P. Polok1.441111113WSep 13 · 15:35R. Ogon4.0091210P. Polok1.201114113WSep 6 · 04:40A. Szurgot4.802460P. Polok1.131111113LSep 6 · 03:55R. Adach3.3518118113P. Polok1.271661181WSep 6 · 01:55R. Szymik1.689111381P. Polok2.0711615113WSep 6 · 01:10R. Wiza3.6610760P. Polok1.241211113
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