TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125288
Played Sep 13Finished
Sebastian Krupa
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
41119172111191618
Pawel Polok
Away
1.47
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:56 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
118 points played in total.
Set by set
41119172111191618
H2H Sebastian Krupa 0–2 Pawel Polok Sebastian Krupa has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Polok beat Krupa 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.47 (63%)
Polok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Krupa 1345 vs Polok 1514
Polok
Correct
both rated, 169 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupa 40% vs Polok 100%
Polok
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupa 40% vs Polok 80%
Polok
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupa +1 · Polok +5
Polok
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Polok) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polok form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupa 2.50 / Polok 1.47
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Polok)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13125288
Krupa2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 67 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back16% 14 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 52
Polok1.47
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 67 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it83% 54 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKrupa0wins
AwayPolok2wins
Polok leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away2
These 2 meetings
MetricKrupaPolokK − PBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match23.033.5−10.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupaPolokBasisWin rate · lifetime300 / 601 vs 110 / 17049.9%64.7%300 / 601 vs 110 / 170Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokKrupa 2.50/Polok 1.47
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.8%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Polok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 13 · 17:10S. Krupa185580P. Polok331111113
LAug 21 · 08:00S. Krupa2899100P. Polok341111123
S. Krupa10
WSep 13 · 20:20S. Krupa1.451111113R. Adach2.432250LSep 13 · 18:45R. Ogon3.20114812113S. Krupa1.27911111092WSep 13 · 18:00G. Sawicki2.50811631S. Krupa1.4211911113LSep 13 · 17:10S. Krupa2.505580P. Polok1.441111113LSep 13 · 16:00S. Krupa2.10911881K. Juszczyk1.6511711113LSep 12 · 01:45S. Krupa1.91781151K. Schaniel1.8011119113WSep 12 · 24:35S. Krupa1.5391113113A. Ruszkiewicz2.381191151LSep 11 · 23:20S. Krupa2.208760L. Oracz1.611111113WSep 11 · 22:10G. Sawicki2.7511118101S. Krupa1.4081311123LSep 11 · 21:20S. Krupa2.10118160O. Vincenec1.671311183
P. Polok10
WSep 13 · 20:45G. Sawicki3.658111151P. Polok1.2111913113WSep 13 · 19:35P. Polok1.241311143R. Adach3.40115120WSep 13 · 18:25K. Juszczyk1.9511870P. Polok1.751311113WSep 13 · 17:10S. Krupa2.505580P. Polok1.441111113WSep 13 · 15:35R. Ogon4.0091210P. Polok1.201114113WSep 6 · 04:40A. Szurgot4.802460P. Polok1.131111113LSep 6 · 03:55R. Adach3.3518118113P. Polok1.271661181WSep 6 · 01:55R. Szymik1.689111381P. Polok2.0711615113WSep 6 · 01:10R. Wiza3.6610760P. Polok1.241211113LSep 5 · 23:30L. Bernacki2.40111011173P. Polok1.503124151
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