TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119909
Played Sep 13Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1167111138111921
Zbigniew Sobkow
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:53 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSebastian Szostok above · Zbigniew Sobkow below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 19-21
Point 108 set 5, 19-21 — our read held Sebastian Szostok at 60.5%
108 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Szostok 2–2 Zbigniew Sobkow Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Sobkow beat Szostok 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:53What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Szostok
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1513 vs Sobkow 1208
Szostok
Wrong
both rated, 305 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 60% vs Sobkow 20%
Szostok
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 50% vs Sobkow 10%
Szostok
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok +3 · Sobkow -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobkow form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.44 / Sobkow 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Szostok)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13119909
Szostok1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 315 of 486
Up 2–0, closes it94% 122 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it80% 203 of 254
Sobkow2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 10 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSzostok2wins
AwaySobkow2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostok50%2 of 4
AwaySobkown = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok4Sobkow0n = 4Szostok took 4 of 4
S2Szostok1Sobkow3n = 4Sobkow took 3 of 4
S3Szostok2Sobkow2n = 4split evenly
S4Szostok2Sobkow1n = 3Szostok took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSzostokSobkowSzostok − SobkowBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match35.535.2+0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokSobkowBasisWin rate · lifetime921 / 1570 vs 51 / 10858.7%47.2%921 / 1570 vs 51 / 108Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSzostok 1.44/Sobkow 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sobkow won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 13 · 06:55S. Szostok29116751Z. Sobkow4291111113
WSep 5 · 10:10S. Szostok3911611113Z. Sobkow25511631
LAug 23 · 09:00S. Szostok4111861152Z. Sobkow48711118113
WAug 23 · 04:30S. Szostok331111113Z. Sobkow269890
S. Szostok10
WSep 13 · 11:50S. Szostok1.80816117113M. Lach1.91111471182WSep 13 · 10:10S. Szostok2.50111111113A. Cichocki1.50136941WSep 13 · 09:00S. Szostok1.831161011113J. Wieczerzak1.8381112772LSep 13 · 07:45A. Cichocki1.501111113S. Szostok2.507880LSep 13 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.3891111113S. Szostok1.53116751WSep 13 · 06:05S. Szostok1.83111110113W. Wojtaszczyk1.83871271LSep 13 · 04:30S. Szostok1.83512851J. Wieczerzak1.83111011113LSep 13 · 03:50M. Lach2.10111166143S. Szostok1.67771111122LSep 11 · 16:20J. Pruszkowski1.74671111113S. Szostok1.9511115772WSep 11 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.85711110S. Szostok1.801113133
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 13 · 13:55A. Cichocki1.4011611113Z. Sobkow2.75711881LSep 13 · 12:15Z. Sobkow2.63116791W. Wojtaszczyk1.4481111113LSep 13 · 10:35Z. Sobkow2.1011115332J. Wieczerzak1.67991111113LSep 13 · 09:50M. Lach1.441111123Z. Sobkow2.6347100LSep 13 · 08:35Z. Sobkow2.25128981W. Wojtaszczyk1.57101111113WSep 13 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.3891111113S. Szostok1.53116751LSep 13 · 05:40Z. Sobkow2.381177111M. Lach1.5391111133LSep 13 · 04:10Z. Sobkow2.7511611952A. Cichocki1.40511311113LSep 13 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2.1010870J. Wieczerzak1.671211113LSep 12 · 14:40W. Urban1.801112117113Z. Sobkow1.9161461182
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