TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120042
Played Sep 13Finished
Zbigniew Sobkow
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119119511311311
Jacek Wieczerzak
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:24 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeJacek Wieczerzak to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Jacek Wieczerzak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 84 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Jacek Wieczerzak at 56.6%
84 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 4–5 Jacek Wieczerzak Zbigniew Sobkow has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:24What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Wieczerzak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1232 vs Wieczerzak 1469
Wieczerzak
Correct
both rated, 237 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 20% vs Wieczerzak 60%
Wieczerzak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 20% vs Wieczerzak 60%
Wieczerzak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow -2 · Wieczerzak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Wieczerzak) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobkow form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 2.10 / Wieczerzak 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Wieczerzak)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13120042
Sobkow2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 10 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Wieczerzak1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 73 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it75% 57 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSobkow4wins
AwayWieczerzak5wins
3 of 9 to a deciderWieczerzak leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobkow60%3 of 5
AwayWieczerzak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobkow5Wieczerzak4n = 9Sobkow took 5 of 9
S2Sobkow5Wieczerzak4n = 9Sobkow took 5 of 9
S3Sobkow2Wieczerzak7n = 9Wieczerzak took 7 of 9
S4Sobkow1Wieczerzak3n = 4Wieczerzak took 3 of 4
S5Sobkow2Wieczerzak1n = 3Sobkow took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricSobkowWieczerzakS − WBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match33.037.0−4.0per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowWieczerzakBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 106 vs 144 / 26948.1%53.5%51 / 106 vs 144 / 269Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WieczerzakSobkow 2.10/Wieczerzak 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59%
Wieczerzak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Wieczerzak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 13 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2510870J. Wieczerzak341211113
LSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow134810J. Wieczerzak331111113
WSep 6 · 04:10Z. Sobkow351111133J. Wieczerzak2283110
LSep 5 · 12:40Z. Sobkow2265110J. Wieczerzak351111133
WSep 5 · 06:30Z. Sobkow331111113J. Wieczerzak257990
LAug 23 · 14:20Z. Sobkow39131122112J. Wieczerzak531171111133
LAug 23 · 08:10Z. Sobkow25116351J. Wieczerzak3631111113
WAug 22 · 14:20Z. Sobkow5612111012113J. Wieczerzak50147121072
WAug 22 · 08:10Z. Sobkow49111188113J. Wieczerzak4577111192
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 13 · 13:55A. Cichocki1.4011611113Z. Sobkow2.75711881WSep 13 · 13:05S. Szostok1.44117118192Z. Sobkow2.63611311213LSep 13 · 12:15Z. Sobkow2.63116791W. Wojtaszczyk1.4481111113LSep 13 · 09:50M. Lach1.441111123Z. Sobkow2.6347100LSep 13 · 08:35Z. Sobkow2.25128981W. Wojtaszczyk1.57101111113WSep 13 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.3891111113S. Szostok1.53116751LSep 13 · 05:40Z. Sobkow2.381177111M. Lach1.5391111133LSep 13 · 04:10Z. Sobkow2.7511611952A. Cichocki1.40511311113LSep 13 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2.1010870J. Wieczerzak1.671211113LSep 12 · 14:40W. Urban1.801112117113Z. Sobkow1.9161461182
J. Wieczerzak10
WSep 13 · 14:20M. Lach1.834540J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 13 · 13:30W. Wojtaszczyk1.731111113J. Wieczerzak2.005880LSep 13 · 11:25A. Cichocki1.611112113J. Wieczerzak2.2061080LSep 13 · 09:00S. Szostok1.831161011113J. Wieczerzak1.8381112772WSep 13 · 08:10M. Lach1.911110691J. Wieczerzak1.8081211113WSep 13 · 07:20W. Wojtaszczyk1.739950J. Wieczerzak2.001111113LSep 13 · 05:15A. Cichocki1.671512116113J. Wieczerzak2.10171091182WSep 13 · 04:30S. Szostok1.83512851J. Wieczerzak1.83111011113WSep 13 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2.1010870J. Wieczerzak1.671211113LSep 12 · 16:40J. Wieczerzak1.836540F. Witczak1.861111113
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