TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13121261
Played Sep 13Finished
Marcin Lach
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411511411––––
Jacek Wieczerzak
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Wieczerzak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Lach above · Jacek Wieczerzak below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 46 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Jacek Wieczerzak at 54.0%
46 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Lach 13–11 Jacek Wieczerzak Jacek Wieczerzak has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Wieczerzak beat Lach 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:48What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Wieczerzak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-11 in 24
Lach
Wrong
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lach 1370 vs Wieczerzak 1486
Wieczerzak
Correct
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lach 20% vs Wieczerzak 40%
Wieczerzak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lach 30% vs Wieczerzak 50%
Wieczerzak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lach -3 · Wieczerzak -2
Lach
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wieczerzak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wieczerzak form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLach 1.83 / Wieczerzak 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Wieczerzak)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13121261
Lach1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Wieczerzak1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLach5wins
AwayWieczerzak5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLach80%4 of 5
AwayWieczerzak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lach5Wieczerzak5n = 10split evenly
S2Lach6Wieczerzak4n = 10Lach took 6 of 10
S3Lach5Wieczerzak5n = 10split evenly
S4Lach1Wieczerzak3n = 4Wieczerzak took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricLachWieczerzakL − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.633.4−0.8per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLachWieczerzakBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 234 vs 144 / 27161.5%53.1%144 / 234 vs 144 / 271Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WieczerzakLach 1.83/Wieczerzak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Wieczerzak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Wieczerzak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 14:20M. Lach331111113J. Wieczerzak268990
LSep 12 · 06:20M. Lach269980J. Wieczerzak331111113
WAug 30 · 14:20M. Lach491111115113J. Wieczerzak4613681182
WAug 30 · 08:10M. Lach341112113J. Wieczerzak2571080
LAug 29 · 14:20M. Lach168620J. Wieczerzak331111113
LAug 29 · 08:10M. Lach204880J. Wieczerzak331111113
WAug 23 · 12:40M. Lach331111113J. Wieczerzak199820
LAug 23 · 06:30M. Lach30611581J. Wieczerzak3711411113
LAug 22 · 12:40M. Lach45111111662J. Wieczerzak52813911113
WAug 22 · 06:30M. Lach4011117113J. Wieczerzak30931171
M. Lach10
LSep 13 · 12:40A. Cichocki1.50101411113M. Lach2.501212451LSep 13 · 11:50S. Szostok1.80816117113M. Lach1.91111471182LSep 13 · 11:00M. Lach2.00761191W. Wojtaszczyk1.7311115113WSep 13 · 09:50M. Lach1.441111123Z. Sobkow2.6347100LSep 13 · 08:10M. Lach1.911110691J. Wieczerzak1.8081211113LSep 13 · 06:30A. Cichocki1.571711113M. Lach2.2515740WSep 13 · 05:40Z. Sobkow2.381177111M. Lach1.5391111133LSep 13 · 04:55M. Lach2.108690W. Wojtaszczyk1.671111113WSep 13 · 03:50M. Lach2.10111166143S. Szostok1.67771111122LSep 12 · 17:05M. Lach1.859980W. Wojtaszczyk1.801111113
J. Wieczerzak10
LSep 13 · 13:30W. Wojtaszczyk1.731111113J. Wieczerzak2.005880LSep 13 · 11:25A. Cichocki1.611112113J. Wieczerzak2.2061080WSep 13 · 10:35Z. Sobkow2.1011115332J. Wieczerzak1.67991111113LSep 13 · 09:00S. Szostok1.831161011113J. Wieczerzak1.8381112772WSep 13 · 08:10M. Lach1.911110691J. Wieczerzak1.8081211113WSep 13 · 07:20W. Wojtaszczyk1.739950J. Wieczerzak2.001111113LSep 13 · 05:15A. Cichocki1.671512116113J. Wieczerzak2.10171091182WSep 13 · 04:30S. Szostok1.83512851J. Wieczerzak1.83111011113WSep 13 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2.1010870J. Wieczerzak1.671211113LSep 12 · 16:40J. Wieczerzak1.836540F. Witczak1.861111113
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