TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13136320
Played Sep 16Finished
Jan Orszulik
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114511119117––
Marek Tkocz
Away
1.55
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:41 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeJan Orszulik to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
114511119117––
H2H Jan Orszulik 12–18 Marek Tkocz Jan Orszulik has won 12 of their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Tkocz beat Orszulik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:41What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (59%)
Tkocz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-18 in 30
Tkocz
Wrong
gap of 6 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Orszulik 1387 vs Tkocz 1403
Tkocz
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Orszulik 40% vs Tkocz 60%
Tkocz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Orszulik 60% vs Tkocz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Orszulik -3 · Tkocz -1
Orszulik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOrszulik 2.25 / Tkocz 1.55
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Tkocz)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13136320
Orszulik2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 27 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back19% 8 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Tkocz1.55
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite67% won 300 of 447
Up 2–0, closes it95% 171 of 181
Up 1–0, closes it84% 247 of 295
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOrszulik5wins
AwayTkocz5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOrszulik75%3 of 4
AwayTkocz66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Orszulik4Tkocz6n = 10Tkocz took 6 of 10
S2Orszulik2Tkocz8n = 10Tkocz took 8 of 10
S3Orszulik8Tkocz2n = 10Orszulik took 8 of 10
S4Orszulik3Tkocz6n = 9Tkocz took 6 of 9
S5Orszulik4Tkocz2n = 6Orszulik took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOrszulikTkoczO − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.743.1−2.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOrszulikTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 250 vs 772 / 116246.8%66.4%117 / 250 vs 772 / 1162Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.639.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczOrszulik 2.25/Tkocz 1.55
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Orszulik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 18:45J. Orszulik26116361M. Tkocz3741111113
LAug 14 · 24:45J. Orszulik4175111172M. Tkocz48111169113
WAug 13 · 18:45J. Orszulik5411111110113M. Tkocz4813881272
LJul 3 · 05:10J. Orszulik123360M. Tkocz331111113
WJul 2 · 23:10J. Orszulik47951111113M. Tkocz4011112792
WJun 10 · 24:00J. Orszulik491161110113M. Tkocz4651191292
LJun 9 · 16:00J. Orszulik409511151M. Tkocz4711118173
LMay 27 · 06:45J. Orszulik49912121332M. Tkocz5711101015113
WMay 26 · 21:10J. Orszulik481110115113M. Tkocz4461261192
WMay 13 · 08:00J. Orszulik4111811113M. Tkocz31911471
J. Orszulik10
LSep 16 · 24:45J. Orszulik2.458770P. Polok1.491111113LSep 15 · 23:35J. Orszulik1.908760M. Lebek1.801111113LSep 15 · 22:25S. Szostok1.90315611113J. Orszulik1.80111311862WSep 15 · 21:35J. Orszulik1.161111113K. Kowalski4.208870WSep 15 · 20:00J. Orszulik1.80111198123P. Kaczynski1.90751111102LSep 15 · 18:45J. Orszulik2.42116361M. Tkocz1.4641111113WSep 15 · 17:35J. Orszulik1.8511119123K. Juszczyk1.857811101WSep 15 · 16:25R. Adach2.5047100J. Orszulik1.501111123WSep 15 · 15:35J. Orszulik2.601211113P. Polok1.4110980WSep 12 · 05:05J. Badura1.783350J. Orszulik1.851111113
M. Tkocz10
LSep 16 · 01:10S. Szostok1.8611125113M. Tkocz1.837101171WSep 16 · 24:25M. Tkocz1.1071111123K. Kowalski5.401145101LSep 15 · 22:50M. Tkocz1.746680M. Lebek1.951111113WSep 15 · 22:00P. Polok1.806111071M. Tkocz1.9111712113WSep 15 · 20:20M. Tkocz1.77111111113K. Juszczyk1.93137541WSep 15 · 18:45J. Orszulik2.42116361M. Tkocz1.4641111113WSep 15 · 18:00R. Adach3.3536110M. Tkocz1.251111133LSep 15 · 17:10M. Tkocz1.858131171P. Polok1.8511159113WSep 15 · 16:00M. Tkocz1.63811911113P. Kaczynski2.0511911492LSep 11 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.7167140P. Brozek2.001111163
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