TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13136325
Played Sep 16Finished
Jan Orszulik
Home
2.45
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811711711––––
Pawel Polok
Away
1.49
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:45 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeJan Orszulik to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
811711711––––
H2H Jan Orszulik 1–0 Pawel Polok Pawel Polok has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Orszulik beat Polok 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:45What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.49 (62%)
Polok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Orszulik 1397 vs Polok 1510
Polok
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Orszulik 40% vs Polok 80%
Polok
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Orszulik 70% vs Polok 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Orszulik -2 · Polok -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Polok) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polok form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOrszulik 2.45 / Polok 1.49
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Polok)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13136325
Orszulik2.45
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 27 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back19% 8 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Polok1.49
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 76 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it95% 41 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it84% 62 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeOrszulik1wins
AwayPolok0wins
Orszulik leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricOrszulikPolokO − PBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match34.027.0+7.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOrszulikPolokBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 249 vs 118 / 18147%65.2%117 / 249 vs 118 / 181Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokOrszulik 2.45/Polok 1.49
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Polok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 15 · 15:35J. Orszulik341211113P. Polok2710980
J. Orszulik10
LSep 15 · 23:35J. Orszulik1.908760M. Lebek1.801111113LSep 15 · 22:25S. Szostok1.90315611113J. Orszulik1.80111311862WSep 15 · 21:35J. Orszulik1.161111113K. Kowalski4.208870WSep 15 · 20:00J. Orszulik1.80111198123P. Kaczynski1.90751111102LSep 15 · 18:45J. Orszulik2.42116361M. Tkocz1.4641111113WSep 15 · 17:35J. Orszulik1.8511119123K. Juszczyk1.857811101WSep 15 · 16:25R. Adach2.5047100J. Orszulik1.501111123WSep 15 · 15:35J. Orszulik2.601211113P. Polok1.4110980WSep 12 · 05:05J. Badura1.783350J. Orszulik1.851111113WSep 12 · 03:55J. Orszulik1.2481111113A. Szurgot3.40115151
P. Polok10
LSep 16 · 24:00S. Szostok1.881012117113P. Polok1.82121091162WSep 15 · 23:10P. Polok1.071112113K. Kowalski6.2041070LSep 15 · 22:00P. Polok1.806111071M. Tkocz1.9111712113WSep 15 · 20:45R. Adach3.655150P. Polok1.221111113WSep 15 · 19:35P. Polok1.751115113K. Juszczyk1.9861370WSep 15 · 18:25P. Kaczynski2.255127111P. Polok1.54111011133WSep 15 · 17:10M. Tkocz1.858131171P. Polok1.8511159113LSep 15 · 15:35J. Orszulik2.601211113P. Polok1.4110980WSep 14 · 02:45I. Szymanski4.708460P. Polok1.131111113WSep 14 · 01:35P. Polok1.271211113R. Adach3.3010940
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