TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13135084
Played Sep 16Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
1.88
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121210119711116
Pawel Polok
Away
1.82
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:36 and never touched — 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
99 points played in total.
Set by set
10121210119711116
H2H Sebastian Szostok 1–2 Pawel Polok Sebastian Szostok has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:36What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.82 (51%)
Polok
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1515 vs Polok 1510
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 40% vs Polok 80%
Polok
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 60% vs Polok 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok +2 · Polok -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Polok) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polok form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.88 / Polok 1.82
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Polok)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13135084
Szostok1.88
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog46% won 68 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back29% 26 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 45
Polok1.82
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 76 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it95% 41 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it84% 62 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSzostok1wins
AwayPolok2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderPolok leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok1Polok2n = 3Polok took 2 of 3
S2Szostok2Polok1n = 3Szostok took 2 of 3
S3Szostok2Polok1n = 3Szostok took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSzostokPolokS − PBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match41.742.7−1.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokPolokBasisWin rate · lifetime921 / 1573 vs 118 / 18158.6%65.2%921 / 1573 vs 118 / 181Avg sets wonper match2.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokSzostok 1.88/Polok 1.82
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 31 · 24:45S. Szostok5610111212112P. Polok571281410133
LAug 30 · 22:20S. Szostok33951181P. Polok4211119113
WAug 11 · 23:45S. Szostok361111143P. Polok2998120
S. Szostok10
WSep 16 · 01:10S. Szostok1.8611125113M. Tkocz1.837101171WSep 15 · 22:25S. Szostok1.90315611113J. Orszulik1.80111311862WSep 15 · 21:10S. Szostok1.711111113M. Lebek2.009990LSep 15 · 05:05K. Adamus2.0011611113S. Szostok1.71711791LSep 15 · 03:55S. Szostok2.17771211122G. Marud1.621111105143LSep 15 · 02:10O. Jadach1.801210311113S. Szostok1.80101211452WSep 15 · 01:10I. Szymanski4.0112791152S. Szostok1.211011118113LSep 14 · 23:50K. Schaniel2.0911118113S. Szostok1.67681191WSep 14 · 23:05O. Jadach1.81111211562S. Szostok1.83914611113WSep 14 · 21:55S. Szostok1.58511811113G. Marud2.1411811642
P. Polok10
WSep 16 · 24:45J. Orszulik2.458770P. Polok1.491111113WSep 15 · 23:10P. Polok1.071112113K. Kowalski6.2041070LSep 15 · 22:00P. Polok1.806111071M. Tkocz1.9111712113WSep 15 · 20:45R. Adach3.655150P. Polok1.221111113WSep 15 · 19:35P. Polok1.751115113K. Juszczyk1.9861370WSep 15 · 18:25P. Kaczynski2.255127111P. Polok1.54111011133WSep 15 · 17:10M. Tkocz1.858131171P. Polok1.8511159113LSep 15 · 15:35J. Orszulik2.601211113P. Polok1.4110980WSep 14 · 02:45I. Szymanski4.708460P. Polok1.131111113WSep 14 · 01:35P. Polok1.271211113R. Adach3.3010940
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