TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13134896
Played Sep 15Finished
Pawel Polok
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111171012711––
Marek Tkocz
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:49 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
6111171012711––
H2H Pawel Polok 1–3 Marek Tkocz Pawel Polok has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Polok beat Tkocz 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:49What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Polok
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Tkocz
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polok 1527 vs Tkocz 1409
Polok
Wrong
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polok 80% vs Tkocz 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polok 80% vs Tkocz 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polok +4 · Tkocz +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Polok) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolok 1.80 / Tkocz 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Polok)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13134896
Polok1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 76 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it95% 41 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it84% 62 of 74
Tkocz1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 18 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePolok1wins
AwayTkocz3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderTkocz leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polok2Tkocz2n = 4split evenly
S2Polok2Tkocz2n = 4split evenly
S3Polok2Tkocz2n = 4split evenly
S4Polok1Tkocz3n = 4Tkocz took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricPolokTkoczP − TBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match37.841.0−3.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolokTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime118 / 180 vs 770 / 115865.6%66.5%118 / 180 vs 770 / 1158Avg sets wonper match2.32.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokPolok 1.80/Tkocz 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 15 · 17:10P. Polok4611159113M. Tkocz398131171
LAug 20 · 22:25P. Polok31116681M. Tkocz3851111113
LAug 4 · 21:35P. Polok3871111542M. Tkocz45113911113
LAug 4 · 15:35P. Polok36881191M. Tkocz4211119113
P. Polok10
WSep 15 · 20:45R. Adach3.655150P. Polok1.221111113WSep 15 · 19:35P. Polok1.751115113K. Juszczyk1.9861370WSep 15 · 18:25P. Kaczynski2.255127111P. Polok1.54111011133WSep 15 · 17:10M. Tkocz1.858131171P. Polok1.8511159113LSep 15 · 15:35J. Orszulik2.601211113P. Polok1.4110980WSep 14 · 02:45I. Szymanski4.708460P. Polok1.131111113WSep 14 · 01:35P. Polok1.271211113R. Adach3.3010940LSep 14 · 24:25G. Sawicki3.65616115113P. Polok1.21111451172WSep 13 · 23:10R. Ogon5.00113118102P. Polok1.12811911123WSep 13 · 21:35S. Krupa2.50419211162P. Polok1.471117119183
M. Tkocz10
LSep 15 · 22:50M. Tkocz1.746680M. Lebek1.951111113WSep 15 · 20:20M. Tkocz1.77111111113K. Juszczyk1.93137541WSep 15 · 18:45J. Orszulik2.42116361M. Tkocz1.4641111113WSep 15 · 18:00R. Adach3.3536110M. Tkocz1.251111133LSep 15 · 17:10M. Tkocz1.858131171P. Polok1.8511159113WSep 15 · 16:00M. Tkocz1.63811911113P. Kaczynski2.0511911492LSep 11 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.7167140P. Brozek2.001111163LSep 11 · 24:45M. Tkocz1.80491115112K. Durak1.901111813133WSep 10 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.2011911113R. Komandzik3.90711311WSep 10 · 22:25M. Lebek1.9013101131M. Tkocz1.76111213113
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