TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13133351
Played Sep 15Finished
Marek Tkocz
Home
1.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811119911114119
Piotr Kaczynski
Away
2.05
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:27 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
811119911114119
H2H Marek Tkocz 15–11 Piotr Kaczynski Piotr Kaczynski has won 11 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:27What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.63 (56%)
Tkocz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-11 in 26
Tkocz
Correct
gap of 4 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkocz 1371 vs Kaczynski 1423
Kaczynski
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkocz 60% vs Kaczynski 40%
Tkocz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkocz 30% vs Kaczynski 50%
Kaczynski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkocz -2 · Kaczynski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkocz 1.63 / Kaczynski 2.05
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tkocz)-1.7pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13133351
Tkocz1.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 300 of 447
Up 2–0, closes it95% 171 of 181
Up 1–0, closes it84% 247 of 295
Kaczynski2.05
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 26 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkocz6wins
AwayKaczynski4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderTkocz leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkocz71.4%5 of 7
AwayKaczynski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkocz7Kaczynski3n = 10Tkocz took 7 of 10
S2Tkocz6Kaczynski4n = 10Tkocz took 6 of 10
S3Tkocz5Kaczynski5n = 10split evenly
S4Tkocz4Kaczynski4n = 8split evenly
S5Tkocz3Kaczynski3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkoczKaczynskiT − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.741.5+2.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkoczKaczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime766 / 1153 vs 206 / 38366.4%53.8%766 / 1153 vs 206 / 383Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczTkocz 1.63/Kaczynski 2.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 15:35M. Tkocz3991141142P. Kaczynski49118118113
LSep 1 · 15:10M. Tkocz4411149101P. Kaczynski4451611123
LAug 25 · 17:10M. Tkocz471011311122P. Kaczynski53128118143
WAug 18 · 19:35M. Tkocz50119127113P. Kaczynski44411101182
WAug 11 · 16:50M. Tkocz331111113P. Kaczynski228860
WAug 4 · 20:00M. Tkocz551111139113P. Kaczynski50913111162
LJun 23 · 20:20M. Tkocz4311841192P. Kaczynski51911119113
WJun 16 · 19:35M. Tkocz4111127113P. Kaczynski368101171
WJun 9 · 20:20M. Tkocz485111110113P. Kaczynski4011821272
WJun 2 · 17:10M. Tkocz371511113P. Kaczynski2613670
M. Tkocz10
LSep 15 · 17:10M. Tkocz1.858131171P. Polok1.8511159113LSep 11 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.7167140P. Brozek2.001111163LSep 11 · 24:45M. Tkocz1.80491115112K. Durak1.901111813133WSep 10 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.2011911113R. Komandzik3.90711311WSep 10 · 22:25M. Lebek1.9013101131M. Tkocz1.76111213113WSep 10 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.341112113J. Nowak2.8581090LSep 10 · 20:20K. Durak1.8011116123M. Tkocz1.907611101LSep 10 · 19:35P. Zemla1.831211113M. Tkocz1.8310830LSep 10 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.8811811113M. Tkocz1.82911661LSep 10 · 16:50P. Gasiorski1.3611117113M. Tkocz2.75371141
P. Kaczynski10
WSep 15 · 16:50P. Kaczynski1.851111106113K. Juszczyk1.8584121162LSep 8 · 20:45W. Pytlas1.83151311113P. Kaczynski1.831711531LSep 8 · 19:35P. Kaczynski1.8651211982K. Juszczyk1.801110911113WSep 8 · 18:25S. Juzek2.341112851P. Kaczynski1.4981411113LSep 8 · 17:10R. Gajda2.008111111123P. Kaczynski1.70113139102WSep 8 · 15:35M. Tkocz1.6091141142P. Kaczynski2.20118118113WSep 1 · 20:45P. Kaczynski1.36118811113R. Adach2.8051111742LSep 1 · 19:10P. Kaczynski3.3061040P. Gasiorski1.271112113LSep 1 · 18:00P. Kaczynski2.156880W. Pytlas1.621111113WSep 1 · 16:25P. Kaczynski2.50111113113P. Zemla1.45461551
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