TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110074
Played Sep 11Finished
Marek Tkocz
Home
1.71
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6117111416––––
Piotr Brozek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:27 and never touched — 60.0% is still 60.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Brozek to win
60.0%
60.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
65 points played in total.
Set by set
6117111416––––
H2H Marek Tkocz 0–1 Piotr Brozek Marek Tkocz has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 11h before this match
Brozek beat Tkocz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:27What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (54%)
Tkocz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Tkocz 1382 vs Brozek 1471
Brozek
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkocz 60% vs Brozek 80%
Brozek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkocz 40% vs Brozek 60%
Brozek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkocz -1 · Brozek +4
Brozek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brozek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkocz 1.71 / Brozek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tkocz)+0.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13110074
Tkocz1.71
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 314 of 468
Up 2–0, closes it95% 175 of 185
Up 1–0, closes it84% 257 of 307
Brozek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 24 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeTkocz0wins
AwayBrozek1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderBrozek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricTkoczBrozekT − BBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match44.046.0−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkoczBrozekBasisWin rate · lifetime766 / 1152 vs 92 / 16966.5%54.4%766 / 1152 vs 92 / 169Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczTkocz 1.71/Brozek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Brozek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 10 · 15:10M. Tkocz—111111472P. Brozek—741311113
M. Tkocz10
LSep 11 · 24:45M. Tkocz1.80491115112K. Durak1.901111813133WSep 10 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.2011911113R. Komandzik3.90711311WSep 10 · 22:25M. Lebek1.9013101131M. Tkocz1.76111213113WSep 10 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.341112113J. Nowak2.8581090LSep 10 · 20:20K. Durak1.8011116123M. Tkocz1.907611101LSep 10 · 19:35P. Zemla1.831211113M. Tkocz1.8310830LSep 10 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.8811811113M. Tkocz1.82911661LSep 10 · 16:50P. Gasiorski1.3611117113M. Tkocz2.75371141LSep 10 · 15:10P. Brozek2.10741311113M. Tkocz1.66111111472WSep 9 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.72711115113M. Lebek1.9211851172
P. Brozek10
WSep 11 · 01:10M. Lebek1.7410670P. Brozek1.911211113WSep 11 · 24:25P. Brozek1.57871112113J. Nowak2.20111181072WSep 10 · 22:50P. Brozek1.22111194123R. Komandzik3.65961111102WSep 10 · 22:00K. Durak1.77912781P. Brozek1.93111011113LSep 10 · 20:45P. Brozek1.958790P. Zemla1.751111113LSep 10 · 19:10P. Brozek2.8768111142P. Gasiorski1.37111197113LSep 10 · 18:00P. Brozek2.178111110122K. Durak1.56119912143LSep 10 · 16:25P. Brozek1.90116491M. Koczyba1.8081111113WSep 10 · 15:10P. Brozek2.10741311113M. Tkocz1.66111111472WSep 8 · 14:40P. Brozek2.0021112113P. Gumulinski1.731181091
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