TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110080
Played Sep 11Finished
Marek Tkocz
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
41191111815131113
Kamil Durak
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:28 and never touched — 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeKamil Durak to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
106 points played in total.
Set by set
41191111815131113
H2H Marek Tkocz 0–1 Kamil Durak Marek Tkocz has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Durak beat Tkocz 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:28What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tkocz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Tkocz 1388 vs Durak 1537
Durak
Correct
both rated, 149 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkocz 60% vs Durak 80%
Durak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkocz 40% vs Durak 70%
Durak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkocz +3 · Durak +2
Tkocz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Durak) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Durak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkocz 1.80 / Durak 1.90
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Durak)+5.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13110080
Tkocz1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 314 of 468
Up 2–0, closes it95% 175 of 185
Up 1–0, closes it84% 257 of 307
Durak1.90
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog67% won 8 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeTkocz0wins
AwayDurak1wins
Durak leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricTkoczDurakT − DBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match34.040.0−6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkoczDurakBasisWin rate · lifetime766 / 1151 vs 48 / 6866.6%70.6%766 / 1151 vs 48 / 68Avg sets wonper match2.42.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DurakTkocz 1.80/Durak 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Durak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Durak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 10 · 20:20M. Tkocz—7611101K. Durak—11116123
M. Tkocz10
WSep 10 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.2011911113R. Komandzik3.90711311WSep 10 · 22:25M. Lebek1.9013101131M. Tkocz1.76111213113WSep 10 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.341112113J. Nowak2.8581090LSep 10 · 20:20K. Durak1.8011116123M. Tkocz1.907611101LSep 10 · 19:35P. Zemla1.831211113M. Tkocz1.8310830LSep 10 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.8811811113M. Tkocz1.82911661LSep 10 · 16:50P. Gasiorski1.3611117113M. Tkocz2.75371141LSep 10 · 15:10P. Brozek2.10741311113M. Tkocz1.66111111472WSep 9 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.72711115113M. Lebek1.9211851172LSep 9 · 24:45M. Tkocz1.41118871M. Adamus2.5581111113
K. Durak10
WSep 11 · 24:00M. Lebek1.90116371K. Durak1.8071111113WSep 10 · 23:10K. Durak1.6011711123J. Nowak2.207114101LSep 10 · 22:00K. Durak1.77912781P. Brozek1.93111011113WSep 10 · 20:20K. Durak1.8011116123M. Tkocz1.907611101WSep 10 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.9181070K. Durak1.741112113WSep 10 · 18:00P. Brozek2.178111110122K. Durak1.56119912143LSep 10 · 17:10K. Durak1.8181111101P. Zemla1.8311139123WSep 10 · 16:00K. Durak2.80111176113P. Gasiorski1.3788111152LAug 26 · 02:10K. Durak1.738970J. Pruszkowski2.001111113WAug 26 · 24:35J. Nowak2.50741181K. Durak1.5011119113
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