TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13116491
Played Sep 12Finished
Jaroslaw Badura
Home
1.78
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311311511––––
Jan Orszulik
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:28 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslaw Badura to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
44 points played in total.
Set by set
311311511––––
H2H Jaroslaw Badura 1–0 Jan Orszulik Jan Orszulik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Badura beat Orszulik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:28What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.78 (51%)
Badura
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Badura 1352 vs Orszulik 1367
Orszulik
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Badura 60% vs Orszulik 80%
Orszulik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Badura 60% vs Orszulik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Badura -2 · Orszulik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Badura) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Orszulik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBadura 1.78 / Orszulik 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Badura)+3.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13116491
Badura1.78
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite70% won 79 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it88% 58 of 66
Orszulik1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 28 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back19% 8 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeBadura1wins
AwayOrszulik0wins
Badura leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricBaduraOrszulikB − OBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match34.024.0+10.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaduraOrszulikBasisWin rate · lifetime307 / 572 vs 111 / 24053.7%46.3%307 / 572 vs 111 / 240Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.735.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaduraBadura 1.78/Orszulik 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Badura · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Orszulik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 11 · 20:45J. Badura—1112113J. Orszulik—81060
J. Badura10
LSep 12 · 03:30J. Badura1.92911661R. Wiza1.8011811113LSep 12 · 02:20J. Badura1.4177111182J. Michalski2.70111169113WSep 12 · 24:45J. Badura1.62115311113R. Szymik2.1761111582WSep 11 · 23:30J. Badura1.277121211113A. Szurgot3.25111014752WSep 11 · 22:20R. Szymik1.651177131J. Badura2.1051111153LSep 11 · 21:30R. Wiza2.2911115113J. Badura1.51361171WSep 11 · 20:45J. Badura1.881112113J. Orszulik1.8281060WSep 11 · 19:10J. Badura1.221112133A. Szurgot3.60610110LSep 11 · 18:20J. Michalski3.1011117113J. Badura1.33471141WAug 31 · 04:40G. Marud1.70891291J. Badura2.00111110113
J. Orszulik10
WSep 12 · 03:55J. Orszulik1.2481111113A. Szurgot3.40115151LSep 12 · 02:45R. Wiza2.20912513113J. Orszulik1.551110111132WSep 12 · 01:30J. Michalski2.9011670J. Orszulik1.321311113WSep 11 · 23:55R. Szymik1.855540J. Orszulik1.801111113WSep 11 · 23:05R. Wiza2.203860J. Orszulik1.551111113WSep 11 · 21:55J. Orszulik1.301181110133A. Szurgot3.20411912112LSep 11 · 20:45J. Badura1.881112113J. Orszulik1.8281060LSep 11 · 19:30J. Michalski2.9061611113J. Orszulik1.321114871LSep 11 · 17:55R. Szymik1.541111113J. Orszulik2.258880WAug 14 · 02:00J. Orszulik2.1513116143J. Pelka1.6011611121
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