TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114379
Played Sep 11Finished
Jakub Michalski
Home
2.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111614118117––
Jan Orszulik
Away
1.32
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:31 and never touched — 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeJan Orszulik to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
84 points played in total.
Set by set
6111614118117––
H2H Jakub Michalski 2–4 Jan Orszulik Jakub Michalski has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:31What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.32 (69%)
Orszulik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Orszulik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalski 1128 vs Orszulik 1371
Orszulik
Wrong
both rated, 243 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalski 20% vs Orszulik 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalski 10% vs Orszulik 40%
Orszulik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalski +1 · Orszulik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Orszulik) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Orszulik form (20%) is below what odds imply (76%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalski 2.90 / Orszulik 1.32
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Orszulik)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13114379
Michalski2.90
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog29% won 83 of 290
Down 0–1, comes back12% 22 of 190
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 130
Orszulik1.32
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 37 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it81% 34 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMichalski2wins
AwayOrszulik4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderOrszulik leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalski66.7%2 of 3
AwayOrszulik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalski3Orszulik3n = 6split evenly
S2Michalski2Orszulik4n = 6Orszulik took 4 of 6
S3Michalski2Orszulik4n = 6Orszulik took 4 of 6
S4Michalski1Orszulik2n = 3Orszulik took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricMichalskiOrszulikM − OBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match34.037.8−3.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalskiOrszulikBasisWin rate · lifetime406 / 1055 vs 106 / 23238.5%45.7%406 / 1055 vs 106 / 232Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match33.735.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OrszulikMichalski 2.90/Orszulik 1.32
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.9%
Orszulik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Michalski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 8 · 04:40J. Michalski—1111113J. Orszulik—7640
WAug 7 · 22:40J. Michalski—191196113J. Orszulik—179111162
LJul 11 · 03:55J. Michalski—981151J. Orszulik—11115113
LJul 10 · 21:55J. Michalski—6640J. Orszulik—1111113
LApr 18 · 03:55J. Michalski—11841552J. Orszulik—5111113113
LApr 17 · 21:55J. Michalski—10670J. Orszulik—1211113
J. Michalski10
WSep 11 · 18:20J. Michalski3.1011117113J. Badura1.33471141LSep 5 · 05:05L. Bernacki1.5381111113J. Michalski2.38119631LSep 5 · 03:55J. Michalski2.2011960D. Fira1.571311113LSep 5 · 02:45R. Wiza1.50111310113J. Michalski2.408111281LSep 5 · 01:30K. Juszczyk1.251111113J. Michalski3.708970LSep 4 · 23:55R. Szymik1.131111123J. Michalski4.9535100LSep 4 · 23:05R. Wiza1.601511113J. Michalski2.1013770LSep 4 · 21:55J. Michalski2.0011890D. Fira1.711311113LSep 4 · 20:45P. Gasiorski1.031412123J. Michalski8.701210100LSep 4 · 19:30L. Bernacki1.28111011113J. Michalski3.25412181
J. Orszulik10
LSep 11 · 17:55R. Szymik1.541111113J. Orszulik2.258880WAug 14 · 02:00J. Orszulik2.1513116143J. Pelka1.6011611121LAug 14 · 24:45J. Orszulik4.0575111172M. Tkocz1.19111169113LAug 13 · 23:35J. Orszulik2.4591111732P. Gumulinski1.47119911113LAug 13 · 22:25M. Lebek1.8311611113J. Orszulik1.86711641WAug 13 · 21:35J. Orszulik1.7611118113A. Szydlo1.90371151LAug 13 · 20:00J. Orszulik3.854760P. Gasiorski1.211111113WAug 13 · 18:45J. Orszulik3.2111111110113M. Tkocz1.2513881272LAug 13 · 17:35J. Orszulik1.83134991K. Juszczyk1.83111111113WAug 13 · 16:25J. Pelka1.8069120J. Orszulik1.911111143
Upcoming Matches
J. Michalski
Sep 11 · 20:20J. Michalski2.25R. Wiza1.57—Sep 11 · 21:05J. Michalski3.70R. Szymik1.21—Sep 11 · 22:40J. Michalski1.60A. Szurgot2.10—Sep 12 · 24:20J. Michalski2.37R. Wiza1.48—Sep 12 · 01:30J. Michalski2.90J. Orszulik1.32—Sep 12 · 02:20J. Michalski2.90J. Badura1.32—Sep 12 · 03:05J. Michalski3.70R. Szymik1.21—Sep 12 · 04:40J. Michalski1.60A. Szurgot2.11—
J. Orszulik
Sep 11 · 20:45J. Orszulik1.86J. Badura1.80—Sep 11 · 21:55J. Orszulik1.24A. Szurgot3.40—Sep 11 · 23:05J. Orszulik1.55R. Wiza2.20—Sep 11 · 23:55J. Orszulik2.25R. Szymik1.52—Sep 12 · 01:30J. Orszulik1.32J. Michalski2.90—Sep 12 · 02:45J. Orszulik1.55R. Wiza2.20—Sep 12 · 03:55J. Orszulik1.24A. Szurgot3.40—Sep 12 · 05:05J. Orszulik1.85J. Badura1.78—
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