TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13078845
Played Sep 4Finished
Pawel Gasiorski
Home
1.03
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
141212101210––––
Jakub Michalski
Away
8.70
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timePawel Gasiorski to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
70 points played in total.
Set by set
141212101210––––
H2H Pawel Gasiorski 9–3 Jakub Michalski Jakub Michalski has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:21What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.03 (89%)
Gasiorski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Gasiorski
Correct
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gasiorski 1601 vs Michalski 1162
Gasiorski
Correct
both rated, 439 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gasiorski 80% vs Michalski 20%
Gasiorski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gasiorski 60% vs Michalski 30%
Gasiorski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gasiorski +1 · Michalski -4
Michalski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 92% — Strong (leans Gasiorski) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gasiorski form (80%) is below what odds imply (97%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGasiorski 1.03 / Michalski 8.70
Signal prob.92% / 8%
Edge (Gasiorski)+2.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13078845
Gasiorski1.03
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite81% won 105 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it94% 47 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it83% 66 of 80
Michalski8.70
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 92 of 301
Down 0–1, comes back13% 25 of 195
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGasiorski7wins
AwayMichalski3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGasiorski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGasiorski75%6 of 8
AwayMichalskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gasiorski8Michalski2n = 10Gasiorski took 8 of 10
S2Gasiorski7Michalski3n = 10Gasiorski took 7 of 10
S3Gasiorski6Michalski4n = 10Gasiorski took 6 of 10
S4Gasiorski5Michalski2n = 7Gasiorski took 5 of 7
S5Gasiorski1Michalski3n = 4Michalski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGasiorskiMichalskiG − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.038.5+4.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGasiorskiMichalskiBasisWin rate · lifetime200 / 251 vs 412 / 106679.7%38.7%200 / 251 vs 412 / 1066Avg sets wonper match2.71.6per matchAvg pointsper match41.333.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GasiorskiGasiorski 1.03/Michalski 8.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
91.6%
Gasiorski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Gasiorski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LApr 25 · 20:45P. Gasiorski—81511282J. Michalski—1113511113
WFeb 17 · 04:35P. Gasiorski—18124113J. Michalski—16101171
WOct 8 · 07:10P. Gasiorski—1111133J. Michalski—89110
LJun 12 · 16:20P. Gasiorski—134811102J. Michalski—1111116123
WJun 12 · 08:45P. Gasiorski—131111113J. Michalski—1113941
WApr 15 · 15:30P. Gasiorski—1112113J. Michalski—61080
WApr 15 · 06:20P. Gasiorski—11811113J. Michalski—611791
LMar 6 · 13:20P. Gasiorski—1111101072J. Michalski—771212113
WMar 6 · 09:45P. Gasiorski—1111113J. Michalski—6850
WJan 28 · 14:10P. Gasiorski—1018711113J. Michalski—121611912
P. Gasiorski10
WSep 4 · 22:20R. Szymik3.508850P. Gasiorski1.261111113LSep 4 · 21:30R. Wiza5.201111113P. Gasiorski1.128640WSep 4 · 19:10P. Gasiorski1.06101111113D. Fira6.75125251LSep 4 · 18:20L. Bernacki3.4012126113P. Gasiorski1.2510101191WSep 1 · 20:00P. Zemla2.331071141P. Gasiorski1.5112119113WSep 1 · 19:10P. Kaczynski3.3061040P. Gasiorski1.271112113WSep 1 · 18:25P. Gasiorski1.111215143R. Adach5.301013120LSep 1 · 16:50P. Gasiorski1.39511711132M. Tkocz2.70117111153WSep 1 · 16:00W. Pytlas3.80591191P. Gasiorski1.2111115113WAug 27 · 20:00M. Tkocz2.6510360P. Gasiorski1.401211113
J. Michalski10
LSep 5 · 05:05L. Bernacki1.5381111113J. Michalski2.38119631LSep 5 · 03:55J. Michalski2.2011960D. Fira1.571311113LSep 5 · 02:45R. Wiza1.50111310113J. Michalski2.408111281LSep 5 · 01:30K. Juszczyk1.251111113J. Michalski3.708970LSep 4 · 23:55R. Szymik1.131111123J. Michalski4.9535100LSep 4 · 23:05R. Wiza1.601511113J. Michalski2.1013770LSep 4 · 21:55J. Michalski2.0011890D. Fira1.711311113LSep 4 · 19:30L. Bernacki1.28111011113J. Michalski3.25412181LSep 4 · 17:55R. Szymik1.121111113J. Michalski5.208570LAug 30 · 04:40K. Juszczyk1.2311117113J. Michalski3.60871151
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