TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13031884
Played Aug 27Finished
Marek Tkocz
Home
2.65
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012311611––––
Pawel Gasiorski
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:02 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timePawel Gasiorski to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
53 points played in total.
Set by set
1012311611––––
H2H Marek Tkocz 2–5 Pawel Gasiorski Marek Tkocz has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:02What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (65%)
Gasiorski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Gasiorski
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkocz 1466 vs Gasiorski 1601
Gasiorski
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkocz 80% vs Gasiorski 60%
Tkocz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkocz 70% vs Gasiorski 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkocz -1 · Gasiorski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Gasiorski) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gasiorski form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkocz 2.65 / Gasiorski 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Gasiorski)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13031884
Tkocz2.65
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 20 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Gasiorski1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite83% won 101 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it96% 44 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it84% 63 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeTkocz2wins
AwayGasiorski5wins
1 of 7 to a deciderGasiorski leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkocz33.3%1 of 3
AwayGasiorski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkocz3Gasiorski4n = 7Gasiorski took 4 of 7
S2Tkocz1Gasiorski6n = 7Gasiorski took 6 of 7
S3Tkocz1Gasiorski6n = 7Gasiorski took 6 of 7
S4Tkocz2Gasiorski2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricTkoczGasiorskiT − GBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match34.338.9−4.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkoczGasiorskiBasisWin rate · lifetime771 / 1147 vs 199 / 24867.2%80.2%771 / 1147 vs 199 / 248Avg sets wonper match2.42.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.041.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GasiorskiTkocz 2.65/Gasiorski 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.8%
Gasiorski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gasiorski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 20 · 18:25M. Tkocz—101280P. Gasiorski—1214113
LAug 13 · 16:00M. Tkocz—9570P. Gasiorski—1111113
WAug 6 · 20:00M. Tkocz—11813113P. Gasiorski—8111171
LJun 2 · 18:25M. Tkocz—118391P. Gasiorski—61111113
WSep 23 · 20:00M. Tkocz—812912113P. Gasiorski—1110111092
LSep 11 · 18:25M. Tkocz—119961P. Gasiorski—71111113
LJul 27 · 19:10M. Tkocz—81190P. Gasiorski—1113113
M. Tkocz10
LSep 4 · 02:20M. Lebek1.921111113M. Tkocz1.767960LSep 4 · 01:35G. Jurowicz2.951111113M. Tkocz1.337590LSep 3 · 23:35K. Hetnar1.901111113M. Tkocz1.754840WSep 3 · 22:50K. Adamus1.88781191M. Tkocz1.8211115113LSep 3 · 21:10A. Ruszkiewicz3.5016413113M. Tkocz1.2514111151WSep 3 · 20:20J. Kaczmarek5.0591161162M. Tkocz1.12116117113WSep 3 · 19:35G. Jurowicz3.30871161M. Tkocz1.2711114113LSep 3 · 17:35K. Hetnar2.051111133M. Tkocz1.6699110WSep 3 · 16:50S. Szostok1.93713761M. Tkocz1.77111111113LSep 3 · 15:10K. Adamus2.03111178113M. Tkocz1.6787111162
P. Gasiorski10
WSep 4 · 22:20R. Szymik3.508850P. Gasiorski1.261111113LSep 4 · 21:30R. Wiza5.201111113P. Gasiorski1.128640WSep 4 · 20:45P. Gasiorski1.031412123J. Michalski8.701210100WSep 4 · 19:10P. Gasiorski1.06101111113D. Fira6.75125251LSep 4 · 18:20L. Bernacki3.4012126113P. Gasiorski1.2510101191WSep 1 · 20:00P. Zemla2.331071141P. Gasiorski1.5112119113WSep 1 · 19:10P. Kaczynski3.3061040P. Gasiorski1.271112113WSep 1 · 18:25P. Gasiorski1.111215143R. Adach5.301013120LSep 1 · 16:50P. Gasiorski1.39511711132M. Tkocz2.70117111153WSep 1 · 16:00W. Pytlas3.80591191P. Gasiorski1.2111115113
Upcoming Matches
M. Tkocz1 of 4 neutral
P. Gasiorski
Nothing scheduled
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