TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13059574
Played Sep 1Finished
Pawel Gasiorski
Home
1.39
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111177111111315
Marek Tkocz
Away
2.70
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:55 and never touched — 68.4% is still 68.4%
Graded at full timePawel Gasiorski to win
68.4%
68.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
5111177111111315
H2H Pawel Gasiorski 6–2 Marek Tkocz Marek Tkocz has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:55What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.39 (66%)
Gasiorski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Gasiorski
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gasiorski 1619 vs Tkocz 1425
Gasiorski
Wrong
both rated, 194 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gasiorski 60% vs Tkocz 40%
Gasiorski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gasiorski 80% vs Tkocz 40%
Gasiorski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gasiorski +2 · Tkocz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Gasiorski) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gasiorski form (60%) is below what odds imply (72%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGasiorski 1.39 / Tkocz 2.70
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Gasiorski)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13059574
Gasiorski1.39
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite82% won 101 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it82% 62 of 76
Tkocz2.70
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 20 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeGasiorski6wins
AwayTkocz2wins
1 of 8 to a deciderGasiorski leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGasiorski80%4 of 5
AwayTkocz33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gasiorski5Tkocz3n = 8Gasiorski took 5 of 8
S2Gasiorski7Tkocz1n = 8Gasiorski took 7 of 8
S3Gasiorski7Tkocz1n = 8Gasiorski took 7 of 8
S4Gasiorski2Tkocz2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home450%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricGasiorskiTkoczG − TBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match38.232.4+5.8per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGasiorskiTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime196 / 245 vs 756 / 112980%67%196 / 245 vs 756 / 1129Avg sets wonper match2.72.4per matchAvg pointsper match41.339.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GasiorskiGasiorski 1.39/Tkocz 2.70
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.4%
Gasiorski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 27 · 20:00P. Gasiorski—1211113M. Tkocz—10360
WAug 20 · 18:25P. Gasiorski—1214113M. Tkocz—101280
WAug 13 · 16:00P. Gasiorski—1111113M. Tkocz—9570
LAug 6 · 20:00P. Gasiorski—8111171M. Tkocz—11813113
WJun 2 · 18:25P. Gasiorski—61111113M. Tkocz—118391
LSep 23 · 20:00P. Gasiorski—1110111092M. Tkocz—812912113
WSep 11 · 18:25P. Gasiorski—71111113M. Tkocz—119961
WJul 27 · 19:10P. Gasiorski—1113113M. Tkocz—81190
P. Gasiorski10
WSep 4 · 22:20R. Szymik3.508850P. Gasiorski1.261111113LSep 4 · 21:30R. Wiza5.201111113P. Gasiorski1.128640WSep 4 · 20:45P. Gasiorski1.031412123J. Michalski8.701210100WSep 4 · 19:10P. Gasiorski1.06101111113D. Fira6.75125251LSep 4 · 18:20L. Bernacki3.4012126113P. Gasiorski1.2510101191WSep 1 · 20:00P. Zemla2.331071141P. Gasiorski1.5112119113WSep 1 · 19:10P. Kaczynski3.3061040P. Gasiorski1.271112113WSep 1 · 18:25P. Gasiorski1.111215143R. Adach5.301013120WSep 1 · 16:00W. Pytlas3.80591191P. Gasiorski1.2111115113WAug 27 · 20:00M. Tkocz2.6510360P. Gasiorski1.401211113
M. Tkocz10
LSep 4 · 02:20M. Lebek1.921111113M. Tkocz1.767960LSep 4 · 01:35G. Jurowicz2.951111113M. Tkocz1.337590LSep 3 · 23:35K. Hetnar1.901111113M. Tkocz1.754840WSep 3 · 22:50K. Adamus1.88781191M. Tkocz1.8211115113LSep 3 · 21:10A. Ruszkiewicz3.5016413113M. Tkocz1.2514111151WSep 3 · 20:20J. Kaczmarek5.0591161162M. Tkocz1.12116117113WSep 3 · 19:35G. Jurowicz3.30871161M. Tkocz1.2711114113LSep 3 · 17:35K. Hetnar2.051111133M. Tkocz1.6699110WSep 3 · 16:50S. Szostok1.93713761M. Tkocz1.77111111113LAug 27 · 20:00M. Tkocz2.6510360P. Gasiorski1.401211113
Upcoming Matches
P. Gasiorski
Nothing scheduled
M. Tkocz1 of 4 neutral
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