TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12427669
Played Aug 14Finished
Jan Orszulik
Home
4.05
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711511116119711
Marek Tkocz
Away
1.19
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:31 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
711511116119711
H2H Jan Orszulik 12–16 Marek Tkocz Jan Orszulik has won 12 of their 28 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:31What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.19 (77%)
Tkocz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-16 in 28
Tkocz
Correct
gap of 4 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Orszulik 1384 vs Tkocz 1442
Tkocz
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Orszulik 40% vs Tkocz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Orszulik 50% vs Tkocz 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Orszulik -2 · Tkocz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (40%) is below what odds imply (84%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOrszulik 4.05 / Tkocz 1.19
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Tkocz)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12427669
Orszulik4.05
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 31 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back19% 9 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Tkocz1.19
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite70% won 321 of 461
Up 2–0, closes it95% 182 of 191
Up 1–0, closes it84% 259 of 310
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOrszulik5wins
AwayTkocz5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOrszulik100%3 of 3
AwayTkocz71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Orszulik3Tkocz7n = 10Tkocz took 7 of 10
S2Orszulik2Tkocz8n = 10Tkocz took 8 of 10
S3Orszulik8Tkocz2n = 10Orszulik took 8 of 10
S4Orszulik2Tkocz6n = 8Tkocz took 6 of 8
S5Orszulik4Tkocz1n = 5Orszulik took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOrszulikTkoczO − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.442.1−3.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOrszulikTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 229 vs 781 / 116145.9%67.3%105 / 229 vs 781 / 1161Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.638.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczOrszulik 4.05/Tkocz 1.19
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.3%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tkocz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 13 · 18:45J. Orszulik—11111110113M. Tkocz—13881272
LJul 3 · 05:10J. Orszulik—3360M. Tkocz—1111113
WJul 2 · 23:10J. Orszulik—951111113M. Tkocz—11112792
WJun 10 · 24:00J. Orszulik—1161110113M. Tkocz—51191292
LJun 9 · 16:00J. Orszulik—9511151M. Tkocz—11118173
LMay 27 · 06:45J. Orszulik—912121332M. Tkocz—11101015113
WMay 26 · 21:10J. Orszulik—1110115113M. Tkocz—61261192
WMay 13 · 08:00J. Orszulik—11811113M. Tkocz—911471
LMay 12 · 21:10J. Orszulik—1511121M. Tkocz—11116143
LApr 24 · 01:35J. Orszulik—2940M. Tkocz—1111113
J. Orszulik10
LSep 11 · 17:55R. Szymik1.541111113J. Orszulik2.258880WAug 14 · 02:00J. Orszulik2.1513116143J. Pelka1.6011611121LAug 13 · 23:35J. Orszulik2.4591111732P. Gumulinski1.47119911113LAug 13 · 22:25M. Lebek1.8311611113J. Orszulik1.86711641WAug 13 · 21:35J. Orszulik1.7611118113A. Szydlo1.90371151LAug 13 · 20:00J. Orszulik3.854760P. Gasiorski1.211111113WAug 13 · 18:45J. Orszulik3.2111111110113M. Tkocz1.2513881272LAug 13 · 17:35J. Orszulik1.83134991K. Juszczyk1.83111111113WAug 13 · 16:25J. Pelka1.8069120J. Orszulik1.911111143WAug 13 · 15:35J. Orszulik—111110113A. Szydlo—471231
M. Tkocz10
LSep 11 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.7167140P. Brozek2.001111163LSep 11 · 24:45M. Tkocz1.80491115112K. Durak1.901111813133WSep 10 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.2011911113R. Komandzik3.90711311WSep 10 · 22:25M. Lebek1.9013101131M. Tkocz1.76111213113WSep 10 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.341112113J. Nowak2.8581090LSep 10 · 20:20K. Durak1.8011116123M. Tkocz1.907611101LSep 10 · 19:35P. Zemla1.831211113M. Tkocz1.8310830LSep 10 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.8811811113M. Tkocz1.82911661LSep 10 · 16:50P. Gasiorski1.3611117113M. Tkocz2.75371141LAug 13 · 18:45J. Orszulik3.2111111110113M. Tkocz1.2513881272
Upcoming Matches
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M. Tkocz
Nothing scheduled
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