TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12424384
Played Aug 13Finished
Jan Orszulik
Home
3.21
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11131181181012117
Marek Tkocz
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
102 points played in total.
Set by set
11131181181012117
H2H Jan Orszulik 11–16 Marek Tkocz Jan Orszulik has won 11 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:20What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (72%)
Tkocz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-16 in 27
Tkocz
Wrong
gap of 5 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Orszulik 1392 vs Tkocz 1469
Tkocz
Wrong
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Orszulik 60% vs Tkocz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Orszulik 60% vs Tkocz 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Orszulik -1 · Tkocz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Tkocz) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkocz form (60%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOrszulik 3.21 / Tkocz 1.25
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Tkocz)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12424384
Orszulik3.21
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 31 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back19% 9 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Tkocz1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 321 of 461
Up 2–0, closes it95% 182 of 191
Up 1–0, closes it84% 259 of 310
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOrszulik5wins
AwayTkocz5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOrszulik100%3 of 3
AwayTkocz71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Orszulik3Tkocz7n = 10Tkocz took 7 of 10
S2Orszulik2Tkocz8n = 10Tkocz took 8 of 10
S3Orszulik8Tkocz2n = 10Orszulik took 8 of 10
S4Orszulik2Tkocz6n = 8Tkocz took 6 of 8
S5Orszulik4Tkocz1n = 5Orszulik took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOrszulikTkoczO − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.642.1−4.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOrszulikTkoczBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 224 vs 779 / 115646%67.4%103 / 224 vs 779 / 1156Avg sets wonper match1.92.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczOrszulik 3.21/Tkocz 1.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Orszulik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 3 · 05:10J. Orszulik—3360M. Tkocz—1111113
WJul 2 · 23:10J. Orszulik—951111113M. Tkocz—11112792
WJun 10 · 24:00J. Orszulik—1161110113M. Tkocz—51191292
LJun 9 · 16:00J. Orszulik—9511151M. Tkocz—11118173
LMay 27 · 06:45J. Orszulik—912121332M. Tkocz—11101015113
WMay 26 · 21:10J. Orszulik—1110115113M. Tkocz—61261192
WMay 13 · 08:00J. Orszulik—11811113M. Tkocz—911471
LMay 12 · 21:10J. Orszulik—1511121M. Tkocz—11116143
LApr 24 · 01:35J. Orszulik—2940M. Tkocz—1111113
WApr 23 · 19:35J. Orszulik—511117123M. Tkocz—118811102
J. Orszulik10
LSep 11 · 17:55R. Szymik1.541111113J. Orszulik2.258880WAug 14 · 02:00J. Orszulik2.1513116143J. Pelka1.6011611121LAug 14 · 24:45J. Orszulik4.0575111172M. Tkocz1.19111169113LAug 13 · 23:35J. Orszulik2.4591111732P. Gumulinski1.47119911113LAug 13 · 22:25M. Lebek1.8311611113J. Orszulik1.86711641WAug 13 · 21:35J. Orszulik1.7611118113A. Szydlo1.90371151LAug 13 · 20:00J. Orszulik3.854760P. Gasiorski1.211111113LAug 13 · 17:35J. Orszulik1.83134991K. Juszczyk1.83111111113WAug 13 · 16:25J. Pelka1.8069120J. Orszulik1.911111143WAug 13 · 15:35J. Orszulik—111110113A. Szydlo—471231
M. Tkocz10
LSep 11 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.7167140P. Brozek2.001111163LSep 11 · 24:45M. Tkocz1.80491115112K. Durak1.901111813133WSep 10 · 23:35M. Tkocz1.2011911113R. Komandzik3.90711311WSep 10 · 22:25M. Lebek1.9013101131M. Tkocz1.76111213113WSep 10 · 21:35M. Tkocz1.341112113J. Nowak2.8581090LSep 10 · 20:20K. Durak1.8011116123M. Tkocz1.907611101LSep 10 · 19:35P. Zemla1.831211113M. Tkocz1.8310830LSep 10 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.8811811113M. Tkocz1.82911661LSep 10 · 16:50P. Gasiorski1.3611117113M. Tkocz2.75371141WAug 14 · 24:45J. Orszulik4.0575111172M. Tkocz1.19111169113
Upcoming Matches
J. Orszulik
Sep 11 · 19:30J. Orszulik1.32J. Michalski2.90—Sep 11 · 20:45J. Orszulik1.86J. Badura1.80—Sep 11 · 21:55J. Orszulik1.24A. Szurgot3.40—Sep 11 · 23:05J. Orszulik1.55R. Wiza2.20—Sep 11 · 23:55J. Orszulik2.25R. Szymik1.52—Sep 12 · 01:30J. Orszulik1.32J. Michalski2.90—Sep 12 · 02:45J. Orszulik1.55R. Wiza2.20—Sep 12 · 03:55J. Orszulik1.24A. Szurgot3.40—
M. Tkocz
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.