TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115892
Played Sep 12Finished
Jaroslaw Badura
Home
1.92
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911118611611––
Roman Wiza
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:18 and never touched — 65.4% is still 65.4%
Graded at full timeJaroslaw Badura to win
65.4%
65.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
911118611611––
H2H Jaroslaw Badura 4–3 Roman Wiza Roman Wiza has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Wiza beat Badura 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:18What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (52%)
Wiza
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Badura 1369 vs Wiza 1241
Badura
Wrong
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Badura 60% vs Wiza 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Badura 60% vs Wiza 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Badura -1 · Wiza +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Badura) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBadura 1.92 / Wiza 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Badura)+5.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13115892
Badura1.92
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 55 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back25% 17 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Wiza1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 102 of 182
Up 2–0, closes it93% 53 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it80% 77 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeBadura4wins
AwayWiza3wins
3 of 7 to a deciderBadura leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBadura60%3 of 5
AwayWizan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Badura5Wiza2n = 7Badura took 5 of 7
S2Badura4Wiza3n = 7Badura took 4 of 7
S3Badura4Wiza3n = 7Badura took 4 of 7
S4Badura1Wiza5n = 6Wiza took 5 of 6
S5Badura2Wiza1n = 3Badura took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricBaduraWizaB − WBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match39.339.1+0.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaduraWizaBasisWin rate · lifetime307 / 571 vs 399 / 94253.8%42.4%307 / 571 vs 399 / 942Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaduraBadura 1.92/Wiza 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Badura · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Wiza won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 11 · 21:30J. Badura—361171R. Wiza—11115113
WAug 30 · 24:45J. Badura—1111113R. Wiza—7760
LAug 29 · 22:20J. Badura—14118672R. Wiza—1251111113
WAug 3 · 24:45J. Badura—114117113R. Wiza—71161172
LAug 2 · 22:20J. Badura—115781R. Wiza—81111113
WAug 2 · 24:45J. Badura—51811113R. Wiza—1116861
WAug 1 · 22:20J. Badura—1111511113R. Wiza—56111372
J. Badura10
LSep 12 · 02:20J. Badura1.4177111182J. Michalski2.70111169113WSep 12 · 24:45J. Badura1.62115311113R. Szymik2.1761111582WSep 11 · 23:30J. Badura1.277121211113A. Szurgot3.25111014752WSep 11 · 22:20R. Szymik1.651177131J. Badura2.1051111153LSep 11 · 21:30R. Wiza2.2911115113J. Badura1.51361171WSep 11 · 20:45J. Badura1.881112113J. Orszulik1.8281060WSep 11 · 19:10J. Badura1.221112133A. Szurgot3.60610110LSep 11 · 18:20J. Michalski3.1011117113J. Badura1.33471141WAug 31 · 04:40G. Marud1.70891291J. Badura2.00111110113LAug 31 · 03:55W. Urban1.7511811113J. Badura1.95511791
R. Wiza10
WSep 12 · 04:20R. Szymik1.3614712772R. Wiza2.7512111011113WSep 12 · 02:45R. Wiza2.20912513113J. Orszulik1.551110111132LSep 12 · 01:10R. Wiza1.3511115642A. Szurgot2.75731111113WSep 12 · 24:20J. Michalski2.376810R. Wiza1.481111113LSep 11 · 23:05R. Wiza2.203860J. Orszulik1.551111113WSep 11 · 21:30R. Wiza2.2911115113J. Badura1.51361171WSep 11 · 20:20R. Wiza1.5713118113J. Michalski2.251141151LSep 11 · 18:45R. Wiza2.854111031R. Szymik1.3311612113LSep 11 · 17:30R. Wiza1.4081181172A. Szurgot2.65118116113LSep 6 · 04:20R. Szymik1.191111113R. Wiza4.058880
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