TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115041
Played Sep 12Finished
Jaroslaw Badura
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116511311115118
Robert Szymik
Away
2.17
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:58 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeRobert Szymik to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
82 points played in total.
Set by set
116511311115118
H2H Jaroslaw Badura 5–4 Robert Szymik Robert Szymik has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Badura beat Szymik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:58What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (57%)
Badura
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Badura 1375 vs Szymik 1402
Szymik
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Badura 80% vs Szymik 60%
Badura
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Badura 60% vs Szymik 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Badura +2 · Szymik -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Badura) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szymik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (46%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBadura 1.62 / Szymik 2.17
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Badura)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13115041
Badura1.62
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 76 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it88% 56 of 64
Szymik2.17
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 28 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back15% 6 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeBadura5wins
AwaySzymik4wins
2 of 9 to a deciderBadura leads 5–4, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaduran = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySzymik57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Badura2Szymik7n = 9Szymik took 7 of 9
S2Badura4Szymik5n = 9Szymik took 5 of 9
S3Badura4Szymik5n = 9Szymik took 5 of 9
S4Badura4Szymik2n = 6Badura took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricBaduraSzymikB − SBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match34.938.6−3.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaduraSzymikBasisWin rate · lifetime306 / 569 vs 610 / 93653.8%65.2%306 / 569 vs 610 / 936Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaduraBadura 1.62/Szymik 2.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Badura · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Badura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 11 · 22:20J. Badura—51111153R. Szymik—1177131
WSep 20 · 03:05J. Badura—81111123R. Szymik—1177101
LSep 19 · 21:05J. Badura—3101191R. Szymik—11129113
LAug 30 · 05:05J. Badura—6360R. Szymik—1111113
WAug 29 · 20:45J. Badura—11101110113R. Szymik—71281282
LAug 2 · 23:30J. Badura—5240R. Szymik—1111113
WAug 2 · 19:10J. Badura—1211611113R. Szymik—14811672
WAug 1 · 23:30J. Badura—11128113R. Szymik—8101191
LAug 1 · 19:10J. Badura—10870R. Szymik—1211113
J. Badura10
WSep 11 · 23:30J. Badura1.277121211113A. Szurgot3.25111014752WSep 11 · 22:20R. Szymik1.651177131J. Badura2.1051111153LSep 11 · 21:30R. Wiza2.2911115113J. Badura1.51361171WSep 11 · 20:45J. Badura1.881112113J. Orszulik1.8281060WSep 11 · 19:10J. Badura1.221112133A. Szurgot3.60610110LSep 11 · 18:20J. Michalski3.1011117113J. Badura1.33471141WAug 31 · 04:40G. Marud1.70891291J. Badura2.00111110113LAug 31 · 03:55W. Urban1.7511811113J. Badura1.95511791LAug 31 · 01:55S. Szostok1.511112133J. Badura2.35810110WAug 31 · 01:10P. Adamus1.68913111142J. Badura2.081111134113
R. Szymik10
LSep 11 · 23:55R. Szymik1.855540J. Orszulik1.801111113LSep 11 · 22:20R. Szymik1.651177131J. Badura2.1051111153WSep 11 · 21:05R. Szymik1.211111113J. Michalski3.705740WSep 11 · 19:55R. Szymik1.141211113A. Szurgot4.5510420WSep 11 · 18:45R. Wiza2.854111031R. Szymik1.3311612113WSep 11 · 17:55R. Szymik1.541111113J. Orszulik2.258880WSep 6 · 04:20R. Szymik1.191111113R. Wiza4.058880WSep 6 · 03:05R. Szymik1.241111113A. Szurgot3.558580LSep 6 · 01:55R. Szymik1.689111381P. Polok2.0711615113WSep 6 · 24:45L. Bernacki2.059640R. Szymik1.701111113
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