TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13050690
Played Aug 31Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
1.70
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8119111210911––
Jaroslaw Badura
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:59 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeJaroslaw Badura to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
8119111210911––
H2H Grzegorz Marud 2–3 Jaroslaw Badura Grzegorz Marud has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:59What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Marud
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1352 vs Badura 1374
Badura
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 20% vs Badura 60%
Badura
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 30% vs Badura 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud -1 · Badura -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marud) · live re-read · sealed at 39% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (20%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 1.70 / Badura 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Marud)-0.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13050690
Marud1.70
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 132 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it88% 78 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it68% 104 of 152
Badura2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 53 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back24% 17 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMarud2wins
AwayBadura3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderBadura leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarudn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBadura100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud2Badura3n = 5Badura took 3 of 5
S2Marud3Badura2n = 5Marud took 3 of 5
S3Marud2Badura3n = 5Badura took 3 of 5
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricMarudBaduraM − BBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match30.429.2+1.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudBaduraBasisWin rate · lifetime635 / 1360 vs 317 / 60646.7%52.3%635 / 1360 vs 317 / 606Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudMarud 1.70/Badura 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Badura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 30 · 22:40G. Marud—3680J. Badura—1111113
LAug 26 · 01:10G. Marud—91391162J. Badura—1111116113
WOct 7 · 03:05G. Marud—1111113J. Badura—5370
WOct 6 · 21:05G. Marud—1111113J. Badura—8340
LSep 23 · 19:35G. Marud—6780J. Badura—1111113
G. Marud10
WSep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57143151G. Marud2.25121111113WSep 9 · 01:00L. Oracz1.83116871G. Marud1.8361111113WSep 9 · 24:10G. Marud1.911111113J. Nowak1.804880WSep 8 · 22:35G. Marud2.101112113P. Adamus1.6761060WSep 8 · 21:45G. Jurowicz2.405660G. Marud1.501111113WSep 8 · 20:30G. Marud1.671111113J. Nowak2.108950LSep 8 · 18:55G. Marud1.837520L. Oracz1.831111113WSep 8 · 17:45G. Marud1.571111113G. Jurowicz2.259470WSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411WSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud1.8311117113P. Adamus1.83741161
J. Badura10
WSep 11 · 19:10J. Badura1.221112133A. Szurgot3.60610110LSep 11 · 18:20J. Michalski3.1011117113J. Badura1.33471141LAug 31 · 03:55W. Urban1.7511811113J. Badura1.95511791LAug 31 · 01:55S. Szostok1.511112133J. Badura2.35810110WAug 31 · 01:10P. Adamus1.68913111142J. Badura2.081111134113WAug 30 · 23:30P. Polok1.561110991J. Badura2.2431211113WAug 30 · 22:40G. Marud1.853680J. Badura1.801111113LAug 30 · 21:55W. Urban1.8091113133J. Badura1.9011111111LAug 30 · 19:55S. Szostok1.47611119113J. Badura2.4511741172LAug 30 · 19:10P. Polok1.631111113J. Badura2.092240
Upcoming Matches
G. Marud
Nothing scheduled
J. Badura
Sep 11 · 20:45J. Badura1.80J. Orszulik1.86—Sep 11 · 21:30J. Badura1.51R. Wiza2.29—Sep 11 · 22:20J. Badura2.17R. Szymik1.57—Sep 11 · 23:30J. Badura1.22A. Szurgot3.60—Sep 12 · 24:45J. Badura2.24R. Szymik1.53—Sep 12 · 02:20J. Badura1.32J. Michalski2.90—Sep 12 · 03:30J. Badura1.54R. Wiza2.21—Sep 12 · 05:05J. Badura1.78J. Orszulik1.85—
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