TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13049539
Played Aug 30Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311611811––––
Jaroslaw Badura
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
50 points played in total.
Set by set
311611811––––
H2H Grzegorz Marud 2–2 Jaroslaw Badura Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:49What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Badura
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1382 vs Badura 1342
Marud
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 40% vs Badura 20%
Marud
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 50% vs Badura 30%
Marud
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud -2 · Badura -3
Badura
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Badura) · live re-read · sealed at 38% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Badura form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 1.85 / Badura 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Badura)+3.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13049539
Marud1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 130 of 311
Down 0–1, comes back24% 41 of 171
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 107
Badura1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 80 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it87% 58 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMarud2wins
AwayBadura2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud2Badura2n = 4split evenly
S2Marud3Badura1n = 4Marud took 3 of 4
S3Marud2Badura2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMarudBaduraM − BBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match33.828.2+5.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudBaduraBasisWin rate · lifetime634 / 1355 vs 314 / 60246.8%52.2%634 / 1355 vs 314 / 602Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaduraMarud 1.85/Badura 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Badura · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Badura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 26 · 01:10G. Marud—91391162J. Badura—1111116113
WOct 7 · 03:05G. Marud—1111113J. Badura—5370
WOct 6 · 21:05G. Marud—1111113J. Badura—8340
LSep 23 · 19:35G. Marud—6780J. Badura—1111113
G. Marud10
WSep 9 · 01:45M. Koczyba1.57143151G. Marud2.25121111113WSep 9 · 01:00L. Oracz1.83116871G. Marud1.8361111113WSep 9 · 24:10G. Marud1.911111113J. Nowak1.804880WSep 8 · 22:35G. Marud2.101112113P. Adamus1.6761060WSep 8 · 21:45G. Jurowicz2.405660G. Marud1.501111113WSep 8 · 20:30G. Marud1.671111113J. Nowak2.108950LSep 8 · 18:55G. Marud1.837520L. Oracz1.831111113WSep 8 · 17:45G. Marud1.571111113G. Jurowicz2.259470WSep 8 · 16:15G. Marud2.2511511113M. Koczyba1.57411411WSep 8 · 15:00G. Marud1.8311117113P. Adamus1.83741161
J. Badura10
LSep 11 · 18:20J. Michalski3.1011117113J. Badura1.33471141WAug 31 · 04:40G. Marud1.70891291J. Badura2.00111110113LAug 31 · 03:55W. Urban1.7511811113J. Badura1.95511791LAug 31 · 01:55S. Szostok1.511112133J. Badura2.35810110WAug 31 · 01:10P. Adamus1.68913111142J. Badura2.081111134113WAug 30 · 23:30P. Polok1.561110991J. Badura2.2431211113LAug 30 · 21:55W. Urban1.8091113133J. Badura1.9011111111LAug 30 · 19:55S. Szostok1.47611119113J. Badura2.4511741172LAug 30 · 19:10P. Polok1.631111113J. Badura2.092240WAug 30 · 17:30P. Adamus1.581191091J. Badura2.1951112113
Upcoming Matches
G. Marud
Nothing scheduled
J. Badura
Sep 11 · 19:10J. Badura1.22A. Szurgot3.60—Sep 11 · 20:45J. Badura1.80J. Orszulik1.86—Sep 11 · 21:30J. Badura1.51R. Wiza2.29—Sep 11 · 22:20J. Badura2.17R. Szymik1.57—Sep 11 · 23:30J. Badura1.22A. Szurgot3.60—Sep 12 · 24:45J. Badura2.24R. Szymik1.53—Sep 12 · 02:20J. Badura1.32J. Michalski2.90—Sep 12 · 03:30J. Badura1.54R. Wiza2.21—Sep 12 · 05:05J. Badura—J. Orszulik——
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