TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13049965
Played Aug 30Finished
Pawel Polok
Home
1.56
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1131012911911––
Jaroslaw Badura
Away
2.24
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:26 and never touched — 70.1% is still 70.1%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
70.1%
70.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
1131012911911––
H2H Pawel Polok 4–1 Jaroslaw Badura Jaroslaw Badura has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:26What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.56 (59%)
Polok
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Polok
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polok 1413 vs Badura 1358
Polok
Wrong
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polok 80% vs Badura 40%
Polok
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polok 60% vs Badura 40%
Polok
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polok +2 · Badura +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Polok) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polok form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolok 1.56 / Badura 2.24
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Polok)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13049965
Polok1.56
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 52 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it79% 41 of 52
Badura2.24
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 50 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back23% 15 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePolok4wins
AwayBadura1wins
1 of 5 to a deciderPolok leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolok100%3 of 3
AwayBaduran = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polok3Badura2n = 5Polok took 3 of 5
S2Polok4Badura1n = 5Polok took 4 of 5
S3Polok3Badura2n = 5Polok took 3 of 5
S4Polok4Badura0n = 4Polok took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricPolokBaduraP − BBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match39.427.8+11.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolokBaduraBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 130 vs 315 / 60363.1%52.2%82 / 130 vs 315 / 603Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolokPolok 1.56/Badura 2.24
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Badura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 30 · 19:10P. Polok—1111113J. Badura—2240
WAug 28 · 22:10P. Polok—11117113J. Badura—691131
WAug 28 · 19:40P. Polok—11611113J. Badura—411461
LAug 27 · 14:45P. Polok—711101172J. Badura—114127113
WAug 27 · 11:05P. Polok—61111113J. Badura—117951
P. Polok10
WSep 6 · 04:40A. Szurgot4.802460P. Polok1.131111113LSep 6 · 03:55R. Adach3.3518118113P. Polok1.271661181WSep 6 · 01:55R. Szymik1.689111381P. Polok2.0711615113WSep 6 · 01:10R. Wiza3.6610760P. Polok1.241211113LSep 5 · 23:30L. Bernacki2.40111011173P. Polok1.503124151WSep 5 · 22:40A. Szurgot4.503139111P. Polok1.17111111133WSep 5 · 21:55R. Adach3.154330P. Polok1.291111113WSep 5 · 19:55R. Szymik1.9512970P. Polok1.751411113WSep 5 · 19:10L. Bernacki2.196860P. Polok1.581111113WSep 5 · 17:30R. Wiza3.251011641P. Polok1.2812911113
J. Badura10
WSep 11 · 19:10J. Badura1.221112133A. Szurgot3.60610110LSep 11 · 18:20J. Michalski3.1011117113J. Badura1.33471141WAug 31 · 04:40G. Marud1.70891291J. Badura2.00111110113LAug 31 · 03:55W. Urban1.7511811113J. Badura1.95511791LAug 31 · 01:55S. Szostok1.511112133J. Badura2.35810110WAug 31 · 01:10P. Adamus1.68913111142J. Badura2.081111134113WAug 30 · 22:40G. Marud1.853680J. Badura1.801111113LAug 30 · 21:55W. Urban1.8091113133J. Badura1.9011111111LAug 30 · 19:55S. Szostok1.47611119113J. Badura2.4511741172LAug 30 · 19:10P. Polok1.631111113J. Badura2.092240
Upcoming Matches
P. Polok
Nothing scheduled
J. Badura
Sep 11 · 20:45J. Badura1.80J. Orszulik1.86—Sep 11 · 21:30J. Badura1.51R. Wiza2.29—Sep 11 · 22:20J. Badura2.17R. Szymik1.57—Sep 11 · 23:30J. Badura1.22A. Szurgot3.60—Sep 12 · 24:45J. Badura2.24R. Szymik1.53—Sep 12 · 02:20J. Badura1.32J. Michalski2.90—Sep 12 · 03:30J. Badura1.54R. Wiza2.21—Sep 12 · 05:05J. Badura1.78J. Orszulik1.85—
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