TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13048294
Played Aug 30Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
1.47
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611117114911117
Jaroslaw Badura
Away
2.45
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:34 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
88 points played in total.
Set by set
611117114911117
H2H Sebastian Szostok 7–4 Jaroslaw Badura Jaroslaw Badura has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:34What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.47 (63%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Szostok
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1466 vs Badura 1362
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 40% vs Badura 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 50% vs Badura 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok -1 · Badura -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Szostok)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (40%) is below what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.47 / Badura 2.45
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Szostok)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13048294
Szostok1.47
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 318 of 496
Up 2–0, closes it95% 120 of 127
Up 1–0, closes it78% 208 of 267
Badura2.45
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 50 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back23% 15 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostok6wins
AwayBadura4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostok100%6 of 6
AwayBadura100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok6Badura4n = 10Szostok took 6 of 10
S2Szostok5Badura5n = 10split evenly
S3Szostok6Badura4n = 10Szostok took 6 of 10
S4Szostok4Badura3n = 7Szostok took 4 of 7
S5Szostok3Badura2n = 5Szostok took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostokBaduraS − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.638.5+1.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokBaduraBasisWin rate · lifetime928 / 1559 vs 314 / 60059.5%52.3%928 / 1559 vs 314 / 600Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.437.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSzostok 1.47/Badura 2.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJan 2 · 01:00S. Szostok—1111113J. Badura—3960
LJan 1 · 17:00S. Szostok—881181J. Badura—11118113
LOct 27 · 03:20S. Szostok—65111182J. Badura—111175113
LOct 26 · 21:20S. Szostok—810111142J. Badura—111265113
WOct 19 · 23:10S. Szostok—121511153J. Badura—1011118132
WOct 19 · 17:10S. Szostok—1311113J. Badura—11950
WOct 12 · 21:10S. Szostok—114711113J. Badura—91111992
LOct 12 · 16:50S. Szostok—411891J. Badura—11611113
WOct 6 · 24:25S. Szostok—1111113J. Badura—5750
WOct 5 · 18:25S. Szostok—111379153J. Badura—7111111132
S. Szostok10
LSep 11 · 16:20J. Pruszkowski1.74671111113S. Szostok1.9511115772WSep 11 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.85711110S. Szostok1.801113133LSep 11 · 14:45S. Szostok1.601011101182P. Kurek2.10124127113WSep 11 · 13:10S. Szostok1.851111113G. Wichowski1.809770WSep 11 · 12:20P. Mecik2.7510911111S. Szostok1.3612115133WSep 11 · 11:05S. Szostok1.601111113P. Kurek2.108670LSep 11 · 09:30S. Szostok1.866101131R. Skotniczny1.8011124113LSep 11 · 08:20S. Szostok1.38711111152P. Mecik2.65119139113LSep 11 · 06:45S. Szostok1.87129111272J. Pruszkowski1.831411710113WSep 11 · 05:30S. Szostok1.90911911113G. Wichowski1.8011911582
J. Badura10
LSep 11 · 18:20J. Michalski3.1011117113J. Badura1.33471141WAug 31 · 04:40G. Marud1.70891291J. Badura2.00111110113LAug 31 · 03:55W. Urban1.7511811113J. Badura1.95511791LAug 31 · 01:55S. Szostok1.511112133J. Badura2.35810110WAug 31 · 01:10P. Adamus1.68913111142J. Badura2.081111134113WAug 30 · 23:30P. Polok1.561110991J. Badura2.2431211113WAug 30 · 22:40G. Marud1.853680J. Badura1.801111113LAug 30 · 21:55W. Urban1.8091113133J. Badura1.9011111111LAug 30 · 19:10P. Polok1.631111113J. Badura2.092240WAug 30 · 17:30P. Adamus1.581191091J. Badura2.1951112113
Upcoming Matches
S. Szostok
Nothing scheduled
J. Badura
Sep 11 · 19:10J. Badura1.22A. Szurgot3.60—Sep 11 · 20:45J. Badura1.80J. Orszulik1.86—Sep 11 · 21:30J. Badura1.51R. Wiza2.29—Sep 11 · 22:20J. Badura2.17R. Szymik1.57—Sep 11 · 23:30J. Badura1.22A. Szurgot3.60—Sep 12 · 24:45J. Badura2.24R. Szymik1.53—Sep 12 · 02:20J. Badura1.32J. Michalski2.90—Sep 12 · 03:30J. Badura1.54R. Wiza2.21—Sep 12 · 05:05J. Badura—J. Orszulik——
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