TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110677
Played Sep 11Finished
Jaroslaw Badura
Home
1.27
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
71112101214117115
Andrzej Szurgot
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:13 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeJaroslaw Badura to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
100 points played in total.
Set by set
71112101214117115
H2H Jaroslaw Badura 1–0 Andrzej Szurgot Andrzej Szurgot has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Badura beat Szurgot 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:13What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.27 (72%)
Badura
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Badura 1371 vs Szurgot 1085
Badura
Correct
both rated, 286 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Badura 60% vs Szurgot 20%
Badura
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Badura 60% vs Szurgot 20%
Badura
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Badura +1 · Szurgot -4
Szurgot
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Badura) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szurgot form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBadura 1.27 / Szurgot 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Badura)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13110677
Badura1.27
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 76 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it88% 56 of 64
Szurgot3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog17% won 9 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back15% 6 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeBadura1wins
AwaySzurgot0wins
Badura leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricBaduraSzurgotB − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match36.027.0+9.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaduraSzurgotBasisWin rate · lifetime305 / 568 vs 14 / 7553.7%18.7%305 / 568 vs 14 / 75Avg sets wonper match2.11.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.630.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaduraBadura 1.27/Szurgot 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.7%
Badura · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Badura won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 11 · 19:10J. Badura—1112133A. Szurgot—610110
J. Badura10
WSep 12 · 24:45J. Badura1.62115311113R. Szymik2.1761111582WSep 11 · 22:20R. Szymik1.651177131J. Badura2.1051111153LSep 11 · 21:30R. Wiza2.2911115113J. Badura1.51361171WSep 11 · 20:45J. Badura1.881112113J. Orszulik1.8281060WSep 11 · 19:10J. Badura1.221112133A. Szurgot3.60610110LSep 11 · 18:20J. Michalski3.1011117113J. Badura1.33471141WAug 31 · 04:40G. Marud1.70891291J. Badura2.00111110113LAug 31 · 03:55W. Urban1.7511811113J. Badura1.95511791LAug 31 · 01:55S. Szostok1.511112133J. Badura2.35810110WAug 31 · 01:10P. Adamus1.68913111142J. Badura2.081111134113
A. Szurgot10
LSep 11 · 22:40J. Michalski1.751111113A. Szurgot1.956660LSep 11 · 21:55J. Orszulik1.301181110133A. Szurgot3.20411912112LSep 11 · 19:55R. Szymik1.141211113A. Szurgot4.5510420LSep 11 · 19:10J. Badura1.221112133A. Szurgot3.60610110WSep 11 · 17:30R. Wiza1.4081181172A. Szurgot2.65118116113LSep 6 · 04:40A. Szurgot4.802460P. Polok1.131111113LSep 6 · 03:05R. Szymik1.241111113A. Szurgot3.558580LSep 6 · 02:20L. Bernacki1.62911815113A. Szurgot2.17118111372LSep 6 · 01:30A. Szurgot2.604880R. Adach1.421111113WSep 6 · 24:20A. Szurgot2.61911811113R. Wiza1.4411711782
Upcoming Matches
J. Badura
A. Szurgot
Sep 12 · 01:10A. Szurgot2.75R. Wiza1.35—Sep 12 · 01:55A. Szurgot4.55R. Szymik1.14—Sep 12 · 03:55A. Szurgot3.40J. Orszulik1.24—Sep 12 · 04:40A. Szurgot2.11J. Michalski1.60—Sep 12 · 18:20A. Szurgot—P. Gasiorski——Sep 12 · 19:30A. Szurgot—K. Schaniel——Sep 12 · 22:40A. Szurgot—G. Sawicki——Sep 13 · 01:30A. Szurgot—K. Schaniel——Sep 13 · 02:20A. Szurgot—O. Sokolowski——Sep 13 · 04:40A. Szurgot—G. Sawicki——
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