TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115044
Played Sep 12Finished
Jakub Michalski
Home
2.37
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811111––––
Roman Wiza
Away
1.48
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:57 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeRoman Wiza to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
48 points played in total.
Set by set
611811111––––
H2H Jakub Michalski 88–117 Roman Wiza Jakub Michalski has won 88 of their 205 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Wiza beat Michalski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:57What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.48 (62%)
Wiza
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
88-117 in 205
Wiza
Correct
gap of 29 in 205, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalski 1149 vs Wiza 1247
Wiza
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalski 60% vs Wiza 40%
Michalski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalski 30% vs Wiza 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalski +1 · Wiza -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Wiza) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wiza form (40%) is below what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalski 2.37 / Wiza 1.48
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Wiza)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13115044
Michalski2.37
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 83 of 290
Down 0–1, comes back12% 22 of 190
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 130
Wiza1.48
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 100 of 179
Up 2–0, closes it94% 51 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it80% 75 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichalski0wins
AwayWiza10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderWiza leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayWiza100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalski2Wiza8n = 10Wiza took 8 of 10
S2Michalski1Wiza9n = 10Wiza took 9 of 10
S3Michalski4Wiza6n = 10Wiza took 6 of 10
S4Michalski1Wiza5n = 6Wiza took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichalskiWizaM − WBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.242.1−9.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalskiWizaBasisWin rate · lifetime408 / 1059 vs 397 / 93938.5%42.3%408 / 1059 vs 397 / 939Avg sets wonper match1.61.8per matchAvg pointsper match33.736.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WizaMichalski 2.37/Wiza 1.48
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.8%
Wiza · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Wiza won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 20:20J. Michalski—1141151R. Wiza—13118113
LSep 5 · 02:45J. Michalski—8111281R. Wiza—111310113
LSep 4 · 23:05J. Michalski—13770R. Wiza—1511113
LAug 30 · 01:10J. Michalski—10640R. Wiza—1211113
LAug 29 · 17:30J. Michalski—61040R. Wiza—1112113
LAug 29 · 01:10J. Michalski—871191R. Wiza—11119113
LAug 28 · 17:30J. Michalski—1155101R. Wiza—91111123
LAug 15 · 01:10J. Michalski—11711782R. Wiza—911911113
LAug 14 · 17:30J. Michalski—8990R. Wiza—1111113
LAug 9 · 01:10J. Michalski—212816112R. Wiza—11101114133
J. Michalski10
WSep 11 · 22:40J. Michalski1.751111113A. Szurgot1.956660LSep 11 · 21:05R. Szymik1.211111113J. Michalski3.705740LSep 11 · 20:20R. Wiza1.5713118113J. Michalski2.251141151WSep 11 · 19:30J. Michalski2.9061611113J. Orszulik1.321114871WSep 11 · 18:20J. Michalski3.1011117113J. Badura1.33471141LSep 5 · 05:05L. Bernacki1.5381111113J. Michalski2.38119631LSep 5 · 03:55J. Michalski2.2011960D. Fira1.571311113LSep 5 · 02:45R. Wiza1.50111310113J. Michalski2.408111281LSep 5 · 01:30K. Juszczyk1.251111113J. Michalski3.708970LSep 4 · 23:55R. Szymik1.131111123J. Michalski4.9535100
R. Wiza10
LSep 11 · 23:05R. Wiza2.203860J. Orszulik1.551111113WSep 11 · 21:30R. Wiza2.2911115113J. Badura1.51361171WSep 11 · 20:20R. Wiza1.5713118113J. Michalski2.251141151LSep 11 · 18:45R. Wiza2.854111031R. Szymik1.3311612113LSep 11 · 17:30R. Wiza1.4081181172A. Szurgot2.65118116113LSep 6 · 04:20R. Szymik1.191111113R. Wiza4.058880WSep 6 · 03:30L. Bernacki1.704111061R. Wiza2.0011912113LSep 6 · 02:45R. Wiza1.858119101R. Adach1.8511811123LSep 6 · 01:10R. Wiza3.6610760P. Polok1.241211113WSep 5 · 02:45R. Wiza1.50111310113J. Michalski2.408111281
Upcoming Matches
J. Michalski
R. Wiza
Sep 12 · 01:10R. Wiza1.35A. Szurgot2.75—Sep 12 · 02:45R. Wiza2.20J. Orszulik1.55—Sep 12 · 03:30R. Wiza2.21J. Badura1.54—Sep 12 · 04:20R. Wiza2.75R. Szymik1.36—Sep 12 · 17:30R. Wiza—G. Sawicki——Sep 12 · 23:05R. Wiza—K. Schaniel——Sep 13 · 01:10R. Wiza—G. Sawicki——Sep 13 · 02:45R. Wiza—K. Schaniel——Sep 13 · 03:30R. Wiza—O. Sokolowski——
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