TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115897
Played Sep 12Finished
Jaroslaw Badura
Home
1.41
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711711116119811
Jakub Michalski
Away
2.70
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:19 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeJaroslaw Badura to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
711711116119811
H2H Jaroslaw Badura 2–5 Jakub Michalski Jaroslaw Badura has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Michalski beat Badura 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:19What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.41 (66%)
Badura
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Michalski
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Badura 1386 vs Michalski 1137
Badura
Wrong
both rated, 249 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Badura 80% vs Michalski 40%
Badura
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Badura 60% vs Michalski 30%
Badura
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Badura +3 · Michalski -1
Badura
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Badura) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBadura 1.41 / Michalski 2.70
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Badura)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13115897
Badura1.41
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 76 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it88% 56 of 64
Michalski2.70
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 83 of 290
Down 0–1, comes back12% 22 of 190
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 130
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeBadura2wins
AwayMichalski5wins
1 of 7 to a deciderMichalski leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaduran = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMichalski66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Badura1Michalski6n = 7Michalski took 6 of 7
S2Badura1Michalski6n = 7Michalski took 6 of 7
S3Badura3Michalski4n = 7Michalski took 4 of 7
S4Badura2Michalski2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricBaduraMichalskiB − MBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match32.738.0−5.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaduraMichalskiBasisWin rate · lifetime307 / 570 vs 408 / 106053.9%38.5%307 / 570 vs 408 / 1060Avg sets wonper match2.11.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.733.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaduraBadura 1.41/Michalski 2.70
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.3%
Badura · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Michalski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 11 · 18:20J. Badura26471141J. Michalski4011117113
LSep 20 · 04:40J. Badura1951130J. Michalski351113113
WSep 19 · 22:40J. Badura4481114113J. Michalski371171271
LAug 29 · 23:30J. Badura2798100J. Michalski341111123
WAug 29 · 19:10J. Badura50691111133J. Michalski41111144112
LAug 2 · 05:05J. Badura2571260J. Michalski361114113
LAug 1 · 20:45J. Badura381169121J. Michalski4371111143
J. Badura10
LSep 12 · 05:05J. Badura1.783350J. Orszulik1.851111113LSep 12 · 03:30J. Badura1.92911661R. Wiza1.8011811113WSep 12 · 24:45J. Badura1.62115311113R. Szymik2.1761111582WSep 11 · 23:30J. Badura1.277121211113A. Szurgot3.25111014752WSep 11 · 22:20R. Szymik1.651177131J. Badura2.1051111153LSep 11 · 21:30R. Wiza2.2911115113J. Badura1.51361171WSep 11 · 20:45J. Badura1.881112113J. Orszulik1.8281060WSep 11 · 19:10J. Badura1.221112133A. Szurgot3.60610110LSep 11 · 18:20J. Michalski3.1011117113J. Badura1.33471141WAug 31 · 04:40G. Marud1.70891291J. Badura2.00111110113
J. Michalski10
WSep 12 · 04:40J. Michalski1.601211113A. Szurgot2.1110580LSep 12 · 03:05R. Szymik1.211111113J. Michalski3.706670LSep 12 · 01:30J. Michalski2.9011670J. Orszulik1.321311113LSep 12 · 24:20J. Michalski2.376810R. Wiza1.481111113WSep 11 · 22:40J. Michalski1.751111113A. Szurgot1.956660LSep 11 · 21:05R. Szymik1.211111113J. Michalski3.705740LSep 11 · 20:20R. Wiza1.5713118113J. Michalski2.251141151WSep 11 · 19:30J. Michalski2.9061611113J. Orszulik1.321114871WSep 11 · 18:20J. Michalski3.1011117113J. Badura1.33471141LSep 5 · 05:05L. Bernacki1.5381111113J. Michalski2.38119631
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.